Chile's industrial output surged in March and the central bank signalled it had room to carry on raising interest rates to keep ahead of inflation. Chile's industrial production expanded a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent in March compared with February, the government statistics agency INE said on Thursday and posted the highest rise on record from a year earlier.
Minutes from the central bank's April 12 policy meeting also published on Thursday showed its board sees inflation normalising but voted unanimously for a second straight aggressive 50 basis-point rate hike in April. The bank has said more rate hikes will follow.
"With today's data, I see another 50 basis-point increase at the bank's May meeting," said Benjamin Sierra, an analyst with Scotiabank in Santiago. "In the minutes, they're saying they want to keep ahead of the curve." Chile has raised its benchmark interest rate 400 basis points since June to 4.5 percent to contain price pressures fuelled by global commodity prices and robust growth. Inflation expectations have breached the bank's annual target but eased following more aggressive rate hikes in recent months.
But the economy continues to rebound. Industrial output soared 30.9 percent in March compared with the same month last year, way above market expectations, accounting for a low base of comparison in March 2010 following a devastating earthquake. "All the board members agreed on the need to continue withdrawing monetary stimulus," said the minutes of the bank's April 12 meeting. "Several board members said the benchmark interest rate was still below its neutral level."
Emerging market peers from Thailand to Brazil are raising interest rates to beat back mounting inflation expectations with varying results. At a meeting last week, Brazil's central bank recognised the inflation outlook there had worsened since March, but hiked rates by a lower-than-expected 25 basis points in a split decision, according to meeting minutes released on Thursday.
The central bank has sharply raised its inflation forecast for 2011 to 4.3 percent, due to high global food and oil prices. It said annual inflation would subside below 4.0 percent in early 2012. Chilean consumer prices rose in March at the fastest pace in 18 months, though a central bank poll of traders this week forecast monthly inflation easing to 0.4 percent in April.
The central bank minutes showed all the board members in agreement that inflation readings were normalising, but domestic demand, employment and economic activity continued to grow vigorously. In Chile, traders surveyed by the central bank's poll published on Wednesday forecast another 50 basis points at its next meeting. However some in the market are betting the bank will ease the pace of hikes to help tame the peso, which is trading at three-year highs after erasing the impact of a $12 billion currency intervention launched in January.
Widening interest rate differentials with slower growing developed economies have drawn a flood of hot money into many emerging market economies, leading to export-damaging appreciation of their currencies. Central Bank President Jose De Gregorio reiterated this week, however, that unlike some Latin American nations Chile was not facing dollar inflows that merit capital controls. He has repeatedly said the bank will prioritise its fight against inflation over taming the peso. The central bank held the rate at a record low of 0.5 percent for almost a year from mid-2009 to help the economy recover from the global financial crisis and a devastating quake last February. Chile's rates peaked at 8.25 percent in late 2008.
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