Malaysian palm oil futures ended almost flat on Tuesday after a long weekend holiday as gains from a rebound in exports last month were erased by prospects of higher output. But continued growth in exports this month could reverse declines in palm oil, which notched its third straight month of losses in April, and rein in strong growth in Malaysian stocks.
The tropical oil has lost 13 percent so far this year on expectations of better yields after two years of declines, a lull in palm oil and an ample South American soy crop flowing into markets. "There is some support from the export data but there has to be a significant flow of orders, strong external markets to make palm oil an explosive story," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage. "Right now we are in a neutral to marginally bullish phase," he added.
The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 1 ringgit to 3,271 ringgit ($1,104) per tonne after going as high as 3,305 ringgit. Overall traded volume stood at 14,358 lots at 25 tonnes each, much lower than the usual 25,000 lots as traders take their time to get back into the market after the holidays.
Reuters analysis showed palm oil will remain technically neutral before it escapes from a consolidation range of 3,234 ringgit to 3,328 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by a contracting triangle. Malaysia's April palm oil exports rose 13.6 percent to 1,255,392 tonnes from a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said over the weekend, snapping four straight months of declines.
Another surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance reported an 18.2 percent jump in April exports. Higher exports come as improving yields are set to extend March's strong production growth into April. Traders say exports need to go above 1.3 million tonnes last month and in May to slow the stock build-up.
Crude oil fell again on Tuesday in volatile trade as traders weighed the impact of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's death on the market, pressurising some vegetable oil prices. Chicago soyoil for May delivery fell 0.1 percent on prospects of a record Brazilian crop now being harvested. But the most-active January 2012 Dalian soyoil contract rose 0.8 percent thanks to a slowdown in China's soy imports.
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