Ukraine's grain harvest likely to rise to 44 million tonnes

Ukraine's grain harvest is likely to rise to 44 million tonnes in 2011 from 39.2 million in 2010 aided by good weather, a senior official of Ukraine's state meteorological centre said.
"In line with our very preliminary forecast Ukraine's grain harvest could total 44 million tonnes this year," Tetyana Adamenko, who heads the agricultural department of the weather forecasting centre, said in an interview during the Reuters Black Sea grain forum. Severe drought in 2010 reduced the grain harvest by a third in the neighbouring Russia while the crop in Ukraine fell by 15 percent.
Russia imposed a grain export ban aiming to prevent a sharp jump in domestic bread prices while Ukraine imposed export quotas which have cut sales by a half so far this season. But weather is much better this year, Adamenko said. "The present situation is favourable for grains. We have enough moisture content in the soil," Adamenko said.
She noted that almost all winter grains, mostly winter wheat, were in good condition and that promised a large harvest. "We have almost no crops in poor state. The potential of our winter crops exceeds average levels," Adamenko said.
She said the harvest of all Ukrainian winter grains might reach 23 million tonnes this year. She gave no data for 2010 but according to analysts the total harvest of Ukrainian winter crops totalled around 20 million last year. Ukraine harvested 16.8 million tonnes of wheat, 8.5 million tonnes of barley and 11.9 million tonnes of maize in 2010. This year, analysts say, the harvest could jump to 43-47 million tonnes, including 22 million tonnes of wheat, 9 million tonnes of barley and about 13 million tonnes of maize.
MORE MAIZE, LESS BARLEY Adamenko said the recent changes in Ukrainian climate, which has become much hotter, had forced farmers to review the way it plants crops. Ukraine is the world's leading producer and exporter of barley but Adamenko said hot and dry spring weather was not too favourable for spring barley.
Ukraine's barley harvest in 2005-2010 averaged 10.1 million tonnes. The ex-Soviet state exported half of its barley. "Our future is maize because hot weather is favourable for this grain. Farmers could abandon barley," she said. According to UkrAgroConsult agriculture Consultancy, farmers reduced the 2011 barley sowing area to 4.3 million hectares from 4.7 million in 2010 and 5.1 million in 2009. Farms raised the area sown to maize by 400,000 hectares to 3.4 million in 2011.