The global sugar market should swing into surplus in 2011-12 (October/September) with a normal monsoon helping India's production recover, ABN Amro/VM Group said in a report on Friday. ABN Amro/VM Group, in its first estimate for 2011-12, forecast a global surplus of 7.83 million tonnes. In a report issued last month it projected a small global deficit of 1.45 million tonnes for 2010/11.
"The period of deficits is gradually morphing into one of surpluses - but, as had been seen from the recent recovery in international prices, the market may still have a few twitches in the tail before this bull-run can be said to be well and truly over," the report said.
Earlier this month Czarnikow forecast a larger global surplus in 2011/12 of 10.3 million tonnes while last month the International Sugar Organisation said a global surplus may exceed three million tonnes. The Kingsman consultancy, which uses an April/March year for its balances, in May projected a global surplus of 10.575 million tonnes. "India's official meteorologists are forecasting that this year's monsoon will be very close to the 50-year average, which would help India's gradual recovery in sugar production and finally unlock the possibility of Indian exports." India is the world's second largest sugar producer and also the top consumer of the commodity.
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