As we hurtle towards the next elections, with some hope and more alarm in our hearts, there is much talk among political leaders of forgetting the past or learning from the past, or of just letting bygones be bygones. But that is neither here nor there!
As a soon as a discussion opens on TV Channels (watched by millions of potential voters) mud-slinging begins! Most of it about the shady past of current party chiefs! It usually stars with one spokesperson blaming the chief of another party of some current malpractice or wrongdoing. Quick as a dart, the rep of the accused party changes the subject successfully by pointing to similar or worse wrongdoing in the past by the accusing party. God knows all have a lot in their respective baggages! In an atmosphere of acrimony and bad feeling, the discussion now turns to the original accuser's party (or more often the party chief) by which means the originally accused party is let off the hook for now. The tables are turned and the viewer is none the wiser.
What hinders moving forward? Defending Zardari (and Bhuttos) or Nawaz Sharif by the respective spokespersons thus dominates and spoils the debate with the viewers concluding that politicians on the whole - past and present - are a bad lot. The MLN Chief for example does not talk about the deal which sent him into exile from his Prime-Minister-with-two-third-majority perch. The standard response of his spokespersons (a prisoner has no such choice) cuts no ice with anyone in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Neither does he let us in on his alleged business preoccupations which keep him in London for days and weeks. Likewise, President Zardari does not come clean on Swiss Accounts and hides behind the immunity clause and does not talk about properties and businesses he is allegedly credited with possessing around the world. JUI chief Fazlur Rahman does not admit to having supported Musharraf for his Presidential election in an underhanded operation, cheating his MMA partners who are not likely to forget it soon.
The Kashmir elections The just concluded Kashmir elections are being interpreted in self-serving ways by politicians and political parties. Most people were disappointed that PPP emerged victorious despite all three+ years of sponsored corruption, misrule and of obstructing the Judiciary. On the other hand PPP people were crying hoarse as to how popular their party was despite opposition by MLN and others. The standby MLN (which won 9 seats to PPP's 20) that the elections were massively rigged was originally shrugged off by PPP as the usual defeatist whining associated with losers.
But three days after the elections its stand got support from an unexpected source, from the horse's mouth itself. From Azad Kashmir Chief Election Commissioner former Justice Khwaja Muhammad Saeed, came the admission that "the electoral rolls, used in Sunday's elections to the State Legislative Assembly, were massively defective and flawed" but that it was not the AJK Election Commission's fault in any way. He said that the fault lay in the decision of the AJK Government which got the electoral rolls prepared through Patwaris, a class of Government administrators of agricultural landholdings at the grass roots level, kingpins under a system at least two hundred years old and blamed for much that is wrong in the country in our agriculture and its political connotations. The CEC said the AJK Election Commission under him did not have sufficient staff to oversee the election process. His request that the elections be supervised by the Army was not accepted. The Judiciary has been moved in the matter, and in the face of CEC's testimony could well declare the elections null and void and order fresh elections, say in six months time with accurately prepared electoral lists and improved conduct of the election process.
PPP-MQM split: this time for keeps? The speed and apparent finality with which MQM appeared to have parted ways with PPP, its on-again off-again ally, took many people by surprise despite past episodes of a similar nature with similar beginnings. Though die-hard cynics believed it would end, as on so many times before, in a return to the fold by MQM after getting some more political gains for itself, others were cognisant of the fact that with PMLQ joining PPP, the latter was no longer as dependent on its long time ally and no longer in as many ways as before. The news broke with MQM grousing angrily and in hurt that of the two Karachi-based seats of the AJK election, PPP wanted MQM to "concede" one to itself, its ally of long standing (frequent hiccoughs notwithstanding). From the humming and hawing by PPP leader Sharjeel Memon in a talk show ("I was not present in the meeting where this subject was allegedly discussed," he said) when faced with this matter, it is clear that there may be some truth to MQM's allegation.
Technicalities to the rescue! Various related follow up steps like handing in resignations (that of Governor Ebad included), asking for separate (opposition) seats in elected forums and finally return of official vehicles followed one after other. However, Sindh Assembly Speaker Nisar Khuhro maintained: there was no timeframe for processing the resignations. There are also "technical delays" like not all 51 members of the Sindh Assembly have yet signed the letters asking for relocation of seats. Moreover it seems hand-written communications are constitutionally required in place of those provided. Hopeful noises about reconciliation possibilities are emanating daily from PPP people at all levels. President Zardari presently in the UK on one of his frequent junkets abroad has extended his already week-long stay in that country so rumours are rife about a possible meeting with MQM supremo leading to yet another rapprochement between their respective parties. The game goes on.
The real reason? While the question: "This time for keeps?" remains the talk of the town, speculation is also rife about whether there are other reasons as well. One theory has it that with the echo of looming general elections filling the air, MQM does not want to be associated any more with a government which has not much to show for its 3-year plus rule. Corruption patronised, judiciary's efforts to dispense justice thwarted at every stage, power shortages reaching desperate proportions, common man crying hoarse for any semblance of Roti, Kapra and Makan within reach, the nation reduced to a basket case, governance entirely missing (just see credentials of the dignitaries looking after Finance, Law, Security, Foreign Affairs and so on): that is the picture MQM wants to opt out of after sharing power all the while with PPP as an important ally.
MQM's dilemma on Karachi remapping
The other theory about why MQM is leaving the coalition (not quite done yet) has to do with Karachi's possible remapping. MQM which wants to own Karachi one hundred percent, so this theory goes, is perfectly happy with Karachi's present one-district status established by Musharraf. PPP and ANP on the other hand want a slice too. And they think they stand a chance if Karachi reverts to the pre-Musharraf administrative set up under which Karachi was divided into 5 districts. Rightly or wrongly they think they could hope to gain a foothold in at least one, a possibility anathema to MQM. One flaw in this theory is that out of office (out of coalition) MQM might have less of a chance to have its way than if it were part of it. Another flaw in the theory (and an important one) is that if MQM wants to spread its influence outside Karachi it would have to dispel the feeling that it would go to any extent to ensure that it remains the sole master of the Metropolis. MQM has been making a serious effort to gain a foothold in the Punjab province. In order to succeed it will have to convince everyone by example that it is ready to share power with other ethnic and linguistic minorities in Karachi. Only then people in other provinces with different backgrounds could consider sharing power with MQM. I think this point is not lost on MQM and we could soon hope for some positive moves in that direction.
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