Russia exported 2.6 million tonnes of grain in July after a nearly year-long ban expired and may export up to 2.9 million tonnes in August, including 2.6 million tonnes of wheat, SovEcon believes. Russia's main grain lobby, the Russian Grain Union, expects exports in August may be even higher at 3.5 million tonnes.
High export volumes reflect low prices. However, underdeveloped infrastructure in the country's south where the main export ports are located raise transportation costs. Exporters start shifting their attention north and eastwards, primarily to the Central Black Soil areas, which will stabilise and may later strengthen domestic prices.
Some exporters plan shipments through Ukrainian and even Baltic ports, which stimulates an additional demand for grain in the Central Russia and in the regions along the Volga river. July exports were above the market expectations of 1.5-1.8 million tonnes and marked an absolute record volume for this month.
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