The euro fell broadly on Monday, hitting a one-month low versus the dollar as worries about Greek and Italian public finances and a regional election rout for Germany's ruling party added to concerns about the eurozone debt crisis. The single currency fell to $1.4065 on trading platform EBS, its weakest since August 5. Traders said option-related bids at $1.4100 had given way and stops were triggered through $1.4080 as a US public holiday made for thinner trading conditions.
A jump in yields on Italian government bonds to near one-month highs weighed on the euro as pressure mounted on Italy - the eurozone's third-largest economy - to get its fiscal house in order. The higher-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 1 percent against the dollar as Friday's soft US employment data fuelled concerns that the US economy may be sliding back into recession.
The suspension of an EU/IMF mission to Greece last week raised questions over whether Athens can cut its budget deficit enough to secure another tranche of bailout funds, while Italy's inability so far to meet its budget commitments continued to hurt its sovereign bond market.
Downside risks to the euro increased after a big fall in support for Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats in a regional vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sunday highlighted the German chancellor's waning popularity and many Germans' dissatisfaction with having to contribute to eurozone bailouts. "For the euro the downside is still the dominant driver as all the commentary is negative, but as yet there isn't enough of a catalyst in the news flow to take it out of its range against the dollar and below $1.4000," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS.
Technical analysts said the clean break below the 61.8 percent retracement of the euro's July-August rally at $1.4110 would add to the negative picture, while the 200-day moving average would provide key support around $1.4010. The euro's losses pushed the low-yielding dollar to 75.223 versus a currency basket, its highest since early August.
The single currency fell more than 1 percent to 1.1021 Swiss francs as economic concerns in the eurozone along with evidence of a continued slowdown in the US economy boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The franc's broad gains in the past week or so have raised expectations the Swiss central bank may have to initiate more measures to weaken the currency with traders on edge for any renewed intervention in franc forward markets.
The euro faces a week packed with event risk. Implied options volatility for the euro rose to two-week highs, reflecting growing nervousness over a further fall in spot. Germany's constitutional court will rule on Wednesday on suits claiming Berlin is breaking German law and European treaties by contributing to multi-billion euro bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Markets will also focus on a slew of policy announcements by major central banks, given strong indications the global economic recovery is stuttering. Analysts said the euro would face more selling if the European Central Bank, which will make a policy announcement on Thursday, indicates increasing concern that a deepening debt crisis is raising overall risks to the eurozone.
"The biggest downside risk for the euro is for a more dovish statement from the ECB, highlighting the impact of negative developments of late and potentially suggesting that the slowdown that we've been seeing is here to stay," said Valentin Marinov, currency strategist at Citi.
"This would open the door to speculation for (early) rate cuts, and that's not what the market is expecting," he said, adding that this could trigger a test of $1.40 in euro/dollar. Investors also awaited plans from US President Barack Obama, due on Thursday, to kick-start job creation. Aggressive measures would be seen as positive for the global growth outlook, but many in the market say there is little appetite for high spending given that US finances are in disarray.
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