The UBS Swiss consumption indicator posted its biggest monthly decrease in nine years in August, touching a level only slightly higher than during the last two recessions, meaning Switzerland could be headed for another downturn. The UBS consumption indicator fell 0.49 points to 0.79 from a revised 1.28 points in July, the Swiss bank's economists said on Tuesday, adding that the August level was only just above those in the 2002/03 and 2008/09 recessions.
The strong franc, which nearly touched parity with the euro in early August, was the a main reason for the fall. To lessen the risk of deflation and a recession in Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank on September 6 announced it would not allow the franc to rise past 1.20 per euro, using unlimited currency interventions if needed. So far that cap has held.
"This extreme overvaluation may well have unnerved consumers and prompted them to cut some of their spending," the economists said in a statement. "Setting an exchange rate floor has noticeably reduced the uncertainty surrounding the exchange rate situation, and it is hoped that this will also lift consumer sentiment somewhat."
The Swiss economy will grow more slowly than previously expected and may even contract in coming quarters as the strong franc and weakening global demand weigh, the government has said. It sees 2011 growth at 1.9 percent, and at 0.9 percent next year. The UBS index is calculated on the basis of five sub-indicators: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, and credit card transactions via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland.
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