Rains forecast to sweep into much of Argentina's farming belt from Wednesday should bring relief to thirsty wheat crops and allow corn seeding to pick up its pace, a weather specialist said on Monday. Concern is growing over dryness in Argentina, which is being affected by the La Nina weather phenomenon for a second straight year, although forecasters do not expect its impact to be as severe this season.
Officials from the Agriculture Ministry say the country could produce a record harvest of soybeans and corn, but a prolonged dry spell that lasts toward the end of the year would erode yields. Recent rains have improved moisture levels although some wheat groups still urgently need water, said Jose Luis Aiello, director of the Applied Climatology Consultancy, which is based in top wheat province, Buenos Aires.
"From Wednesday, a weather front will be coming in, and we expect rains from then until Friday across the Pampas region. We think there'll be a decent amount of rain." Aiello said. Argentina's Pampas, which straddle the leading farming provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe, account for most of the country's soy, wheat and corn production.
"This should change the situation and provide some moisture for those places that need it right now," he said. "At the moment, the eastern crop region is fine. But there's starting to be a shortage of soil water reserves in north-western Buenos Aires, western Santa Fe, Cordoba, La Pampa and in the north-west of the country," he added.
Dryness was likewise hitting wheat plants in south-western parts of Buenos Aires province. Dryness linked to La Nina reduced yields last year although the impact was light compared with the severe drought of the 2008/09 season and 2010/11 corn production still reached a record 22.9 million tonnes, according to the government.
Last season's soy harvest was harder hit and production fell to 48.8 million tonnes. La Nina, unusually cold water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, provokes heavy rains in India, China, Australia and the southern part of Africa, while it tends to cause dryness in Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil.
Despite the jitters over the weather, the US Department of Agriculture still predicts an Argentine soy harvest of 53 million tonnes and 27.5 million tonnes of corn. USDA forecast the wheat crop at 13.5 million tonnes. That September 12 projection looks upbeat compared to the Agriculture Ministry's recent forecast for production of between 11 million and 13 million tonnes, which cited the dry weather.
However, Aiello said wheat crops still had time to recover if widespread rains arrive in the coming days. "If the rains do come, there will be a substantial improvement in the condition of wheat crops, which have already started to have some problems. It would also be good for corn (planting) and the start of soy planting," he added. Soy plantings start in earnest in Argentina in October and some industry analysts have said farmers may turn over land originally earmarked for corn to the oilseed if the dryness drags on.
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