In the red zone

Pakistan has been experiencing abnormal rains and floods for two years running. A press report now points out that the country has moved up from 29th position in 2009-10 to 16th in the current year on the Climate Change Vulnerability Index. The issue was recently the focus of a discussion at the Faisalabad University of Agriculture, where Vice-Chancellor Professor Iqrar Ahmad Khan noted that Pakistan is in the red zone confronting worst weather conditions. He pointed out that last year witnessed an unusual shift of the monsoon from the easterly to the westerly region. This year, southern Sindh received record-breaking rains. Worse is expected in the years to come. The disastrous rains that hit Sindh this year actually were part of a new weather phenomenon which also caused a lot of havoc in vast swathes of Bangladesh and India. Environmental scientists have been warning for a while that global warming is to change weather patterns, causing heavier rains followed by long spells of drought. The trend in due course is expected to adversely impact agricultural patterns. That means it may no longer be possible for farmers to grow certain crops or fruit trees in areas to which they are indigenous. Droughts and an increasing water scarcity due to overuse are going to pose even more serious challenges for an agrarian economy like Pakistan's. The prognosis for this region is particularly bad since, slowly but surely, greenhouse emissions from the rapidly growing industrial activity in India and China are said to have set off melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The process is to unleash huge devastation first through floods and then droughts, destroying farming communities' livelihoods. All of this should be a matter of serious concern for the government; it must prepare to deal with the changing situation. So far, there is no sign of concern, let alone preparation. Which is not surprising given our planners' and policymakers' penchant for ad hocism. But the challenges ahead can only be ignored at the peril of this country's progress and prosperity. The time to plan and act is now. There is a lot that ought to be done to save our agriculture from future adversity. The Agriculture University experts underscored the need to familiarise farmers with precision agriculture that is gaining popularity world-wide. It entails relying on new technologies like satellite imagery, information technology and geospatial tools. They must also devote serious attention to research aimed at developing crop varieties adaptive to changing climatic conditions. A greater responsibility though lies with the government to reduce the country's vulnerability to climate change. Dams and dykes should be built to prevent flood damage and to preserve water when it is in abundance. And it is imperative to popularize modern irrigation techniques for maximum utilisation of available water. Copyright Business Recorder, 2011