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Most emerging Asian currencies looked set on Friday for their third consecutive week of losses, led by the Indian rupee, as Europe's deepening debt crisis continued to drive investors out of riskier assets and into the relative safety of the US dollar.
Emerging Asian currencies are expected to remain weak with little hope for any near-term resolution to the eurozone debt mess and on growing signs of funding strains in Europe as the cost of borrowing dollars grows more expensive. "In the absence of a policy response from Europe or a cutting of the cost of borrowing thru the Fed's swap lines - both seem unlikely just yet - the dollar hoarding and funding pressures should continue to suggest further upside for dollar/Asian currencies," said Robert Ryan, a currency strategist with BNP Paribas in Singapore.
The Singapore dollar followed the rupee. The local dollar has shed 1.3 percent versus the greenback so far this year, largely in recent months as Europe's debt crisis roiled global financial markets. "The market will keep trading risk-off if the euro zone doesn't show any positive developments," said a senior dealer at an Asian bank in Kuala Lumpur, adding emerging Asian currencies are expected to stay vulnerable.
Dollar/won and euro/won rose on demand from offshore funds. South Korean exporters sold dollar/won for settlements, causing interbank speculators to reduce positions, but the pair is seen staying firm, dealers said. Dollar/rupiah rose on strong dollar demand in the NDF market, while the central bank was spotted selling dollars around 9,050. Meanwhile, currency players were largely unfazed by news of a $21.7 billion commitment for jets between Boeing Co and Indonesia's Lion Air.
Dollar/baht hovered around the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of its October slide. Dealers said the market will try to break it and rise more on risk-off sentiment. If the retracement of 31.00 is cleared, the pair may head to 31.12, the 76.4 percent retracement. At 31.12, it also has a 100-week moving average that it has not closed above since September 2009.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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