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Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is at the centre of allegations that the country's powerful establishment is supporting its bid to power in the next general elections, with an increasing number of politicians and technocrats announcing their decision to join it.
Imran Khan, cricketer-turned politician who launched his movement for 'change' this year, has repeatedly rejected allegations of establishment support; but his critics insist that the reason behind his sudden rise in popularity is attributable to establishment support with the objective of creating an alternate power to rid the country of the two major political parties, ie Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
Currently, PTI has been joined by many politicians while many others are waiting for the appropriate time. Prominent amongst those who joined PTI recently are PPP's former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and former IB chief Masood Sharif Khattak while those waiting for the right time include former State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor Shahid Kardar and former Pakistan ambassador to Washington during Musharraf era Maleeha Lodhi. These four names, Imran's critics allege are hardly likely to support change as envisioned by him as they are more likely to safeguard the interests of the establishment.
According to PTI sources in Lahore, the party chief Imran Khan has a long list of those willing to join the party at an appropriate time. "Khan Sahib himself told me that Shahid Kardar and Maleeha Lodhi are willing to join PTI," said the source who requested not to be named.
Kardar, who resigned as SBP governor after differences with President Zardari, had previously served as minister for finance, planning and development, excise and taxation and industries and mineral development under government of Punjab between November 1999 and January 2001. Additionally his critics allege that Kardar had first refused on some issues pertaining to Sindh Bank but later reportedly agreed to President Zardari's demands - demands considered financially untenable - however the President, when requested to revisit Kardar's resignation by Dr Hafeez Sheikh in light of his agreement, refused to be placated.
When asked if there was any involvement of establishment in the large numbers of known figures seeking to join PTI, the source laughed and said, "just wait for days to come." However, there is a growing perception in political circles that a large number of politicians, close to the establishment in the past, have begun joining the PTI in droves. The decision of former IB chief Masood Sharif Khattak to join PTI and some other important figures has strengthened this perception.
According to political pundits in the capital the establishment is working hard to bring some set-up sans PPP and PML-N following next general elections in an effort to rid the country of the politics of the two major parties. They believe that the establishment does not trust Nawaz Sharif or President Zardari who had been supported earlier by the establishment because of his weakness.
The executive's continued conflict with the judiciary especially subsequent to the recent court verdict on the review petition of the NRO filed by the government as well as the establishment of an independent commission to probe the Memogate has raised serious concerns within the government that the judiciary as well as the army top brass has joined forces to topple its top man.
However, the pundits maintain that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto coupled with the failure of the government to bring her murderers to justice, poor governance and unpopularity of PPP's co-chairman President Asif Ali Zardari had made its work easy. Analysts also believe that the task to make Nawaz Sharif and his party (PML-N) unpopular has been given to Imran Khan which is why he (Khan) is more critical of the Sharifs rather than Zardari at his public meetings. However, many argue that Khan feels greater personal animosity against the Sharifs because of allegations levelled against his ex-wife Jemima Khan for stealing antiquities from Pakistan by the Sharifs as well as the revelations of Sita White and her daughter which again are sourced to the Sharifs' camp.
In the next general elections, the main danger to PPP and PML-N would, therefore, come from Imran due to massive support from within the youth or the 18-34 year-olds. This group consists of roughly one-third of the country's entire population.
According to an estimate, given that the total population of the country is 180 million, then this age group stands at about 60 million, all potential voters. In the previous general elections of 2008, the total registered voters numbered a little over 80 million and, with a 44 percent turnout, almost 35 million polled their votes. The youth group said to be extremely important for any political party in the next general polls, is not evenly spread throughout Pakistan but mostly concentrated in Punjab, parts of Sindh as well as Khyber Pakhtunkhawa.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2011

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