Political activity is once again focused on the President and questions are yet again being asked whether the minus one formula will succeed. This, no doubt, accounts for the technically correct but unrealistic statement by Prime Minister Gilani that it is he who is the Chief Executive, and, therefore, he and not the President, must be held accountable for all actions taken by the government.
The action this time around, is the alleged involvement of Husain Haqqani with reference to the Memogate scandal who it is being further alleged was guided by the President.
The Prime Minister appeared conciliatory with the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) on 16th December when the President was away from the country on medical grounds but launched a thinly veiled tirade against the establishment less than 48 hours after the President arrived in Islamabad. This flip-flop is no doubt more a reflection of the implementation of the strategy approved by the President upon his return, rather than a change in attitude of the Prime Minister who, left to his own devices, has consistently displayed a conciliatory approach with all (including the opposition, the judiciary and the establishment), if not instructed expressly to do otherwise.
There is no doubt that the PPP's anger against Nawaz Sharif for filing the reference in the Supreme Court is premised on the fear that an enquiry by a court-appointed commission, which the PPP has consistently dismissed as biased against its leadership, may point the finger at the President. This explains Gilani's spirited invective against the army and the ISI of conspiring and intriguing against the government. These charges were denied the next day by the Chief Justice who maintained that the Supreme Court will not legitimise any military coup and the COAS who assured that there will be no coup. However, the latter did add a rider: the government's charge sheet against the establishment is an attempt to divert attention from the real issues. Tempers thus are continuing to simmer.
Be that as it may, there is general agreement that a coup is out of the question due to three reasons: (i) the army is aware that it does not command popular support especially in the aftermath of the Raymond Davis fiasco, the US marine raid in Abbottabad, and some disturbing revelations in WikiLeaks; (ii) major opposition parties notably the PML (N) and Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf have repeatedly warned the establishment to stay away from the political arena. Any change therefore has to be constitutional or else, these two political parties may come out on the streets; and (iii) international anger against a coup would further complicate our existing fragile relations with the rest of the world irrespective of what is now accepted as Pakistan's critical role in the war on terror.
Meanwhile, the media continues to focus attention on the Memogate with the majority of journalists quite naturally assuming that as the main accused namely Husain Haqqani was resident first in the Presidency and at present in the Prime Minister House, the PPP is either convinced of his innocence or wants to ensure that he does not make the President the fall guy. Conspiracy theorists gave less weight to Haqqani's usual smile and more to his uncharacteristic silence while entering the Supreme Court on Thursday as armed officials surrounding him disallowed anyone to speak to him. He is in a cage, albeit a gilded one, so maintained several of his friends.
Gilani's vitriolic attack against the ISI and the army on the floor of the House is a win-win strategy for the PPP. If the army dismisses the government, then the party would be martyred and all transgressions related specifically to the waning economic fortunes of the common man with obvious electoral implications would be wiped away; however if the establishment buckles under and does not unseat the government, then the Senate elections would guarantee a PPP win which, in turn, would ensure that the party will remain an important political player even if it loses in the next elections.
However, the question is would the party take these extreme measures? Those who argue that it's a do or die situation for the PPP must recall that the party has, several times, taken a confrontational approach. However it promptly backtracked if its hold on power was threatened. Examples are the decision to bring the ISI under the control of the Interior Ministry, the restoration of the judges, and opting for legal foot dragging by appealing the Supreme Court verdicts and compromising the investigations ordered by the Supreme Court. Thus a compromise is possible and the PPP is merely positioning itself to ensure that it is offered a deal that it can accept. In effect, no deal minus President Zardari is acceptable. Gilani, of course, is expendable for the party - a fact that the Prime Minister is not naive enough not to be fully aware of.
The President has not yet spoken publicly and has so far relied on his henchmen to express their non-acceptability of the minus one formula. He will however definitely speak from the PPP stronghold tomorrow on the sad occasion of Benazir Bhutto's death anniversary at Garhi Khuda Bakhsh where devotees of the Bhutto family will throng in hundreds of thousands to pay homage to the assassinated leader. The flood-affected victims of Sindh who continue to languish in makeshift abodes after their homes, livestock and land were inundated, the jiyalas in Karachi and Hyderabad who are vigorously opposed to President Zardari's concessions to retain a coalition with the MQM, the common man suffering under the increasing yoke of inflation and unemployment coupled with severe energy shortages and inability to cook due to gas-shedding will, the PPP hopes, forget their grievances on 27th December. Grief is a great uniter after all. The Sindh card thus will automatically and legitimately come into play. Those close to the President are urging him not to raise temperatures during his speech. It is not yet clear whether he will heed these calls as the President is known to deviate from the scripted speech during delivery.
The establishment has no trump cards though it can technically meet one outstanding demand of the opposition parties: hold free and fair elections before the PPP calls them. And that is where the real danger lies for the PPP. But for this to succeed the establishment would have to negotiate and convince PML (N) and Imran Khan that it will hold elections on schedule, not an easy task given our past, and that caretakers would be non-partisan. The PPP's strength therefore lies not within itself but in the opposition's tacit support premised on the army's past transgressions in the political arena.
In a genuine democracy, the opposition leaders proclaim, the PPP's minority government would itself call for fresh elections. This is unlikely as the PPP would like to wait it out till April after the Senate elections are held and the Swiss case implicating the President time-barred according to Swiss laws. The opposition is fully aware of this as is the establishment. Given this country's past only time will tell which way the wind blows.
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