The weather in Brazil and Argentina, major soybean and corn exporters with the promise of large crops to feed the world next year, will remain center stage in grain markets this week albeit in subdued trading.
Investors returning to work after the Christmas trading holiday on Monday only to wind down business ahead of the New Year weekend will balance their books to start afresh in 2012 after seeing prices hit record highs before sliding this year.
Grains, like many other commodities, were rocked by the debt crisis in the euro zone in 2011 as investors considered risk almost on a daily basis, and analysts expect this sentiment to prevail until a cohesive solution is found.
But tentative signs of the US economy improving after a debilitating recession could be supportive for grains next year although how China's economy, the world's second largest, fares could have a more telling impact considering the world's most populous nation is a top consumer of raw materials.
"It used to be that when the US sneezed, the world got sick. Now, it's India and China," said Mark Kinoff, president of Ceres Hedge. "China has expanded at such a rate that it has changed their way of living. This has to be reined in."
"They have been on the light side (of grain purchases) even with a $2 to $4 break in corn and soybean prices. I would have expected China to scoop it up with both hands," he added.
China has been absent from the US corn market since making a large purchase totalling about 1 million tonnes in October, and the country may halt imports until April as it stockpiles local supplies in a bid to shore up domestic prices.
Corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade have tumbled more than 20 percent since rising to an all-time high near $8 per bushel in June, and are on track for a small yearly loss after surging 52 percent last year.
CBOT soybean futures have tumbled about 20 percent from a high of $14.56 in September. In the year, prices are down 16 percent as of Friday. Wheat futures are down just over 21 percent for the year as of Friday.
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