Some sections of the media have reported that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned of more floods like the ones witnessed these last two years if the government does not take immediate and long-term steps to control the situation. The ADB has also urged the government to shift its approach to flood management by maintaining a constant focus on it rather than relying on last minute actions geared at damage control. The ADB has based its comments on a research report by Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) task force. The analysis has pointed out two main reasons for the past floods and future ones, namely rapid glacier retreat and shifting monsoonal zones. Although, the timing and speed of glacier melting is highly contested among the climate change experts, there is considerable data available that this phenomenon is occurring. The reality that this phenomenon is occurring is difficult to ignore. The outcome of these retreats might be seen in the shape of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (Glofs), whereby melted ice water remains enclosed in a glacier reservoir of sorts before it bursts sending incredibly large amount of water downstream. If and when that happens, the kind of destruction it will wreak along its flood path of the Himalayan Karakoram Hindukush (HKH) region will surpass the floods of the last two years. It's more worrying that, as identified in the report, Pakistan's current disaster management plans are woefully inadequate to deal with such a calamity. The shifting monsoonal patterns, as discussed in the analysis, also portrays a troublesome picture. The monsoon zone, the research indicates, has shifted 80-100 kilometres from north-east (north Punjab and Kashmir) to north-west (including Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa). This effectively means that the two western rivers of Kabul and Indus will witness significant flooding in the future. Pakistan's geological position puts the country in a vulnerable position vis-a-vis climate change; our history is filled with natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, droughts and landslides. Keeping in mind the floods of 1973, 1992 and 2005, it is astonishing that till 2006 we did not have an effective and comprehensive disaster management structure. The Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Federal Emergency Relief Cell set up in 1970s were marred with corruption, bureaucratic delays and incompetence thus failing to deliver whenever a natural disaster struck in the country. After the earthquake of 2005, it seems the policymakers finally woke up to the reality we were facing. Signing the International Disaster Risk Reduction Protocol, Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-15, National Disaster Management Ordinance 2006, and subsequent formation of National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) signified that the government was changing its reactive approach to one of proactive governance. Yet the floods of 2010 and 2011 show that we haven't come much far in dealing with these calamities. A lot is still desired in terms of capacity building of the NDMA and PDMA which are still struggling with administrative problems. As pointed out in a detailed report published in this newspaper on 14th December, there is operational doubling, miscommunication and mismanagement; the Federal Emergency Relief Cell is still operational even after establishment of NDMA and there aren't established links between the relevant ministries and departments for co-ordinated efforts towards disaster management. We also lack long-term policies to battle with climate change. Pakistan took the initiative to develop its first National Climate Change Policy. But the achievement was diluted with the fact that the task force took 2 years to formulate it and it still hasn't been approved by the cabinet. The galactic pace at which this process is going, it seems incomprehensible how we can outpace the speed of climate change. The recommendations based on the FoDP research report must be given a serious consideration. Watershed management and "community-based disaster risk management system" are two areas where the government should increase its focus. It is only with concerted effort and long-term vision that we can outsmart climate change which is bearing down on us. Copyright Business Recorder, 2012
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