Copper closed almost 1 percent lower on Friday as the dollar rose and risk appetite weakened after US data suggested that the growth of the world's largest economy could disappoint this year. Copper still was on track for a third straight week of gains as investors hoped Greek debt talks would soon conclude and as demand prospects were seen brighter following the US Federal Reserve's pledge to keep rates low.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $8,530 a tonne, down 0.7 percent from $8,590 at the close on Thursday, having earlier reached a high of $8,679.50. The metal is headed for a 4 percent increase this week and an 11 percent jump so far this year, following a 21 percent drop in 2011. The US economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, but a strong rebuilding of stocks by businesses and weak spending on capital goods hinted at slower growth in early 2012.
"The data was worse than expected. The US was still growing, but if you exclude inventories, the real growth was only 0.8 percent," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital. "At the moment copper is still trading on macro sentiment despite drawdowns of inventories. We needed to see a correction anyway as the market was overbought. China is also quiet, and it will take time before the euro zone problems are resolved, so copper is running out of steam a bit."
The euro reversed early gains against the dollar on Friday after the US GDP data prompted a run for safe havens. A stronger US currency makes it costlier for holders of other currencies to buy dollar-denominated commodities. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Sluggish demand from China, as well as a recovery in supplies and an uncertain economic outlook for the global economy, are set to weigh on copper this year, a Reuters poll showed.
Supporting copper this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US central bank was ready to offer the economy additional stimulus after it announced it was likely to keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014. Also many investors hoped new developments would help stop the euro zone debt crisis from spreading. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn described talks with private creditors on restructuring Greek debt as "very close" to closing, though some people were growing jittery that Portugal may require another bailout.
On the supply side the latest readings pointed to continued tightness in copper. LME inventories fell by 2,450 tonnes to 335,425, their lowest since September 2009. "The outlook for industrial metals is now definitely improving as the combination of low interest rates and stabilising economic growth is supportive for more cyclical sectors," said Credit Suisse in a note. But it voiced concerns over China, the world's top copper consumer: "Next week's focus is likely to shift to China. We should get more indications whether Chinese inventories rose just as a result of restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year or because of a slowdown in demand." In other metals, zinc closed at $2,150 from $2,205, aluminium at $2,265 from $2,276, and nickel at$21,700 a tonne from $21,600. Lead ended at $2,295 a tonne versus $2,325, and tin was $24,400 from $24,005.
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