No military coup can take place now: PILDAT panellists

"No military coup can take place in Pakistan now" not because civil government has provided a credible alternative to military rule but because Pakistan can not be governed now through a centrist force, the panellists said during discussion at PILDAT forum.
The forum, Effectiveness of Parliamentary Oversight on Defence and National Security, held to take stock of the status of Parliamentary oversight on defence over the past 4 years. Chair of the Forum, Mushahid Hussain Sayed said that Pakistan had seen a transformation in which society had become more vibrant and stronger while 'the government is weak'. "We are moving towards adopting 'rules of the game' in which everyone remains within his ambit", he said. Despite the Memogate controversy, there had been no voice from political parties supporting a military rule.
Syed Zafar Ali Shah, MNA, Ziauddin, Senior Journalist, Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi, Defence Analyst and Mushahid Hussain Sayed, former Senator and Federal Minister, were speakers at the Forum. Tasneem Noorani, former Federal Secretary, Lieutenant General Talat Masood (Retd) and Air Vice-Marshal Shahzad Choudhry (Retd), former Ambassador of Pakistan also participated along with the members of Parliament, analysts and media persons.
Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi, Defence and Political Analyst, said that the relationship of the military with the Parliament has changed relatively. "The Public Accounts Committee has done a lot of work pertaining to armed forces with which the forces are not comfortable", he said. Parliament is getting stronger but it will only become relevant in Pakistan's politics when political leadership makes Parliament the forum of decision-making and resolution of crises. He said theoretically the coup can take place at any time but pragmatically it is not a possibility as Pakistan has become ungovernable by the Military. Eighty percent problems of governance are structural. For terrorism the military needs support which the coalition government is providing. Since passage of the 18th Amendment, the Judiciary cannot validate a coup which rules out any chances of intervention. It remains to be seen how the Supreme Court will take up issues relating to the military and whether the Court will treat the military just as it has been treating the Civil Government.
Muhammad Ziauddin, Senior Journalist said that an inevitable turf war has ensued between the army and the civilian government. Transitions from a closed system (military regime) to a civilian dispensation are always prone to accidents. He said that the May 13 in-camera briefing to joint parliamentary session in a sense was watershed. But on many counts it was business as usual.
Syed Zafar Ali Shah, Member National Assembly said that some instances this year have not created an impression that there is no real oversight of the Parliament over the security establishment. The joint session was held in a state of emergency and nothing institutional. Political parties need to build their capacity over such issues Defence Expert Lieutenant General Talat Masood (Retd), said that no coup is possible in the country at present and the media should behave responsibly when talking of coup. The military needs the political parties to wield political support.
He further said that legislation needs to improve in the country. Civilian supremacy is established by good legislation. "Military establishment makes the policy but democratic governments are held accountable", he urged. The civilian governments need to improve their performance. Tasneem Noorani, former Federal Secretary of Interior, said the security profile of military and country needs to change. The incompetent leadership does not show any capability. The parliamentary oversight should be established step by step and we should not expect any instant change.
Naseer Bhutta MNA from PML-N said that somehow everyone is afraid of talking over the issues of civil-military relations. Even during the crises like Memogate the political parties from the opposition expressed no support for unconstitutional measures. This is a pivotal change and it will take a long time to ultimately take us towards civilian supremacy. When the leaders are not corrupt they will have the confidence to exert their supremacy over all institutions. It cannot be denied that military and civilian institutions are correlated. The PML-N has gone to the Supreme Court over a technical point.
Muhammad Baleegh-ur-Rehman, another MNA from PML-N, said that the civil-military relations has very little to do with the corruptions of politicians. In the entire world the military does not intervene, using poor-governance as an excuse. The mindset needs change and the military needs to work in its own ambit. Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, Executive Director PILDAT in his welcome address said when they talked about Parliamentary oversight they remained within the constitutional parameters.