The country's GDP grew by 3.2 per cent against projected target of 4.2 per cent for the current fiscal year and 4 percent claimed by the finance minister following dismal performance by the services sector especially, finance and insurance.
Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh has recently claimed at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank at Washington that Pakistan would post a healthy growth of 4 per cent for the current fiscal year.
Secretary Statistics Division Sohail Ahmad told media after the National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting that the provisional growth is estimated at 3.2 per cent for the current fiscal year on the basis of available data of last eight to nine months.
The dismal growth of 2.1 per cent in services sector against the budgetary estimates of 5.1 per cent for the current fiscal year was considered as the major reason for poor performance of the economy. The growth in agriculture and industrial sectors has been estimated 3.6 percent, 3.4 percent respectively, slightly above the projected targets for the current fiscal year. Growth in industrial sector is at 3.4 per cent whereas it is projected at 3.1 per cent in the Annual Development Plan for 2011-12.
Sohail Ahmed said for assessing the economy for the current fiscal year, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) also revised the base year from 1999-2000 to 2005-06. He said revision exercise is common in every country after 5 to 10 years. The revised GDP data and overall economic growth since 2005-06 did not change much as compared to the old database.
The revision shows that agriculture share in GDP has increased from 24.1 percent to 24.7 percent, industrial sector increased from 21.7 percent to 22.2 percent while services sector share increased from 47.2 percent to 53.1 percent. Overall GDP at market prices for the new base year has slightly decreased by 0.4 percent. The average annual growth rate between 2005-06 and 2010-11 has decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent.
Crops in agriculture sector registered a growth of 3 percent, livestock 4.1 percent, forestry 4.1 percent and fishing 1.8 percent. The growth in mining and quarrying category in industrial sector was recorded at 1.7 percent, manufacturing 2.4 percent, construction 2.8 percent and energy by 14.3 percent.
Sector-wise growth in services sector showed that growth in transport and communication would remain 3.2 percent for the current fiscal year, wholesale and retail trade 2.1 percent, financial and insurance negative by 11 percent, ownership and dwellings 4.1 percent, public administration and defence 3.4 percent, and social and public services by 3.4 percent.
Sohail said the rebasing was done in a very professional manner and international best practices were adopted. Experts from German international development agency, GIZ closely monitored the implementation process. Arif Cheema of PBS said the growth 2011-12 was quite homogeneous among the main sectors of the economy. However, within sectors the performance was quite diverse. Highest growth was with electricity, gas and water supply (14.3 %) while finance and insurance services had outstanding negative growth (- 11.0 %).
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