External financing estimated at Rs 386.9 billion

The federal budget 2012-13 has unrealistically estimated external financing to the tune of Rs 386.9 billion that is 71.1 percent higher than the revised estimates of Rs 226.2 billion for the current fiscal year.
Federal budget 2012-13 documents reveal that the budgeted inflows did not materialise forcing the government to revise its budget estimates for foreign inflows from Rs 413.9 billion to Rs 226 billion (less than 45 percent) for the current fiscal year. The government seems upbeat that it will get Rs 386.9 billion in 2012-13.
The government has estimated external loans of Rs 274.8 billion for 2012-13 - 34 percent more than the revised estimates (Rs 180.5 billion) of the current fiscal year and 4.3 percent less than the actual estimates ( Rs 287.2 billion) made for budget 2011-12.
External loans include project loans of Rs 140.3 billion (15.3 percent less than the revised estimates of 2011-12) with the following share distribution: the federal government will receive Rs 92.4 billion (27 percent less than the revised estimates of 2011-12) while the share of provinces is budgeted at Rs 48 billion (19.5 percent more than the revised estimates of the current fiscal year).
The government has estimated programme loans (budgetary support) of Rs 41.4 billion for 2012-13 that is Rs 36.9 billion more than last years' revised target of Rs 4.5 billion. Rs 46.5 billion have been estimated from Euro Bonds that is Rs 2.5 billion more than Rs 44 billion budgeted for the current fiscal year (with zero inflow in the revised estimates) while Rs 46.5 billion have been estimated from Islamic Development Bank (Rs 2.5 billion more than the budgetary estimates for 2011-12 and Rs 40.2 billion more than the revised estimates). The government had estimated Rs 13.8 billion for 2011-12 under Tokyo pledges but has not made any estimates for 2012-13 in this regard.
The country is expecting a total of Rs 112 billion as external grants in 2012-13 that is Rs 66.4 billion more than the revised 2011-12 budget estimates ( Rs 45.6 billion) and Rs 14.6 billion less than the actual budgetary estimates of 2011-12.
Project grants have been budgeted at Rs 25.5 billion in 2012-13 that is Rs 6.8 billion more than the revised 2011-12 estimates with the following share distribution: Rs 7.5 billion for federal that is Rs 2 billion less than the revised 2011-12 estimates, Rs 5 million for autonomous bodies that is Rs 20 million less than the actual budgetary estimates of 2011-12 and Rs 17.9 billion for provinces that is Rs 8.7 billion more than the revised budgetary estimates of the current fiscal year.
The government has estimated Rs 2.9 billion for 2012-13 from commodity aid grants Rs 2.7 billion less than the revised budgetary estimates of 2011-12, Rs 1.0 billion as external grant under Tokyo Pledges, Rs 74.4 billion from privatisation proceeds that is Rs 4 billion more than the current fiscal year's Rs 70.4 billion and Rs 8.2 billion under Kerry Lugar bill that is Rs 12.2 billion less than the revised estimates of 2011-12 and Rs 25.9 billion less than the actual budgetary estimates of the current fiscal year.