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Hosni-Mubarak2Deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, 84, has been sentenced to life imprisonment for his role in killing protesters (about 850 people were killed in the 18-day anti-Mubarak revolt) after a trial. The ruling comes at a politically fraught time for Egypt, two weeks before a run-off in its first free presidential election that will pit the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which was banned under Mubarak, against the deposed autocrat's last prime minister. After some 60 years of banishment from Egypt's political landscape the once-underground MB is about to land in the country's most powerful office - the presidency. In the presidential election last week its candidate Mohammed Morsi had emerged as the top winner, and thus a candidate in the runoff on June 15-16. The MB, which operates on the political scene under the rubric of Justice and Freedom Party, is already the near-majority party in the Egyptian parliament. Presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi is now pitted against Ahmed Shafiq, a former air force chief and deposed President Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister, who calls Mubarak a role model. Given that the MB candidate got 5.8 million votes (about 25 percent) against his rival's 5.5 million (24 percent) the contest is expected to be tough, but as things seem to be developing now his victory is almost certain. The followers of the Nasserite candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi, who had scored third position in the first round with 4.8 million votes (21 percent) are inclined to vote for US-educated Morsi than the 'remnant of the despot'. Yet the final outcome on the D-day remains dicey - because Egypt's so-called Establishment remains hostile to emerging democratic forces, and particularly the MB, and its manipulating clout over the affairs of state reigns supreme. How the Muslim Brotherhood and its political wing wins over rest of the vote bank is certainly a huge challenge for Morsi and his team. Obstacles in his way are formidable, as much for the image of his platform as a primitive outfit frozen in what his detractors call the seventh-century Arab as for his party's reluctant entry to the anti-Mubarak uprising. But thanks to Morsi's personal image as a modern, liberal Muslim he has the potential and capacity to win over quite a chunk of the voters who didn't vote for in the first round, but they had also rejected his rival. Latest reports from Cairo suggest he is trying to broaden his appeal to liberals, leftists and Coptic Christians. A large majority of the Christians had voted for Ahmed Shafiq in the first round which was expected given the Muslim Brotherhood's history as a militant organisation. But Morsi has vowed to be a "president of all Egyptians", and has pledged to realise goals of the 'Arab Spring' revolution. His offer to set up a national unity government in case he wins the president's office also tends to strengthen his credentials as an MB member who is prepared to embrace the realities of the 21st century. The fact that the MB has jumped into the electoral arena after watching the game from the ringside seat for more than half a century does of course indicate a paradigm shift in its political philosophy and idiom. But it would not be as easy and in natural flow as it seems. The challenges come both from inside Egypt and the outside world, particularly the West. Inside the party has to reinvent itself, changing itself from a reformist movement to a political party committed to winning through ballot. Then it has to come face to face with the modern-day issues and problems. For instance, will Morsi succeed in winning over his party to the much-delayed pro-worker reforms like allowing workers to form unions? But more than domestic problems for him the real challenge comes from outside where the MB is generally seen in negative light. It is interesting to note that Morsi has already made it clear that if elected he would abide by the agreements and treaties established by the Sadaat/Mubarak governments. But he has warned that he believes Israel has already violated those agreements. Will the West, which is definitely disappointed to see the MB emerging to rule the Arab world's leading power, Egypt, the net outcome of the Arab Spring it had openly backed - even at the cost of its own Hosni Mubarak's ouster? More importantly, it is to be seen whether Mubarak's trial sets a precedent for holding Middle East autocrats to account and his conviction becomes a political football in the Egyptian election.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2012

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