What next after Gilani?

Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani stands disqualified both as prime minister and as member of the National Assembly in pursuance of Supreme Court's verdict announced yesterday afternoon that effectively establishes the writ of the law and the constitution. A few hours later, the Election Commission of Pakistan led by Chief Election Commissioner Justice Mian Shakirullah Jan denotified Gilani in pursuance of the same SC verdict. The three-member bench of the court has overruled the ruling of NA Speaker Dr Fehmida Mirza, which the court said was unconstitutional - as the general impression has been that she remained loyal to the call of her party than to her constitutional duty to act as a 'post office' in the matter of conviction of Gilani by the Supreme Court. If the ruling coalition has accepted the apex court's decision, as early reports suggest it has, then it's indeed a welcome development for the rule of law to prevail in the country. Pakistan has not seen a prime minister last for a full term after Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. If Shaukat Aziz lasted as prime minister for the remainder of Mir Zafarullah Jamali's term, it was because of a uniformed Musharraf in the presidency. Gilani's resistance to accept the seven-member bench's decision convicting him for his contempt of court in the NRO case was held to be illegal, irrational and against the democratic norms from the very beginning. He had, however, stuck to his position; driven by as much his personal hubris and penchant for power as by his loyalty to his party and its leader, so soon he was in the cul-de-sac. His legal advisors could not be of any help because they had to follow the script written somewhere else. He could have carved a niche in history by accepting the decision of the court, even with Socratic resignation. History may or may not record him as the 'the longest serving prime minister of Pakistan', but definitely as a prime minister who despite enjoying unprecedented constitutional powers - which he got under the 18th Constitutional Amendment - was unceremoniously removed from office. However, the exit of Yousuf Raza Gilani from the political scene is not much of a game changer; the tussle between the judiciary and the executive refuses to relent and is expected to continue. The next elected prime minister faces the challenge of writing a letter to the Swiss authorities, which in simple words means allowing reopening of money-laundering cases against President Asif Ali Zardari. Then the Memogate case is about to be decided by the Supreme Court and if the Memogate Commission's report already submitted to the court is any guide, it may have serious consequences for the government. And equally tough for the new prime minister may be the fallout of the anti-Gilani verdict, which questions the legal validity of all 'consequences' of ex-prime minister Gilani's orders and decisions made since last April 26, when he was convicted by the seven-member bench. How much of that aftermath is exempted from legal scrutiny under the 'de facto doctrine' we have to wait for the detailed judgement. Despite an impressive spate of profound legislative achievements in the form of the 18th, 19th and 20th amendments to the constitution that have restored parliamentary form of governance in its pristine form in the country, the heavy cross of failure in the form of power shortages leading to riots, high rate of inflation, massive erosion in the value of the rupee, the unsettled conditions in Balochistan, rampant corruption and the crumbling law and order in the country that the ruling coalition has been carrying all these four years, there is not much to build on during the rest of the term. And future elections are risky because the ruling coalition's achievements have been eclipsed by its failures to justify its claim for another term. But the question whether we as a polity are in any manner better placed now to throw up an honest, efficient government needs an answer. It is indeed heartening to note the positive pronouncements from members of the outgoing cabinet of ministers, that the PPP coalition will uphold the rule of law and follow the constitution, as any impasse between the political leadership, even under the umbrella of the parliament, and the judiciary is likely to result in derailment of the democratic process to the detriment of the federation and its citizens. It is indeed a defining moment for the people of Pakistan, asking all of us to pull our respective share of the weight.