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The Supreme Court's ruling that the current prime minister is ineligible for office is a blow to the ruling party, but unlikely to cause a constitutional breakdown. Any challenge to the court ruling by the PPP could further widen a rift between the Supreme Court and the party. Many political leaders are viewed as incompetent and corrupt, and have offered little guidance.
President Zardari's government is weak, dependent on unreliable coalition partners, and has limited control over the military. It has failed to tackle corruption or implement economic reforms. Serious problems in formulating and implementing policy will continue to deter investment. The government also faces growing political opposition. The military, which has governed the country for more than half of its history, is often seen as the real driving force behind foreign and security policies.
What to watch:
-- How the PPP will respond the ruling by the Supreme Court, which could mean a new prime minister if it accepts the court's decision, or further confrontation if the PPP dig its heels in.
-- Attacks on politicians, and alliances forming between Islamist parties to challenge the government. Any move by the military to more openly influence political developments. Gilani's legal troubles are likely to drag on, and could paralyse government decision making.
WORSENING RELATIONS WITH AMERICA An American investigation into the November border incident found that both US and Pakistani forces were at fault, putting further strain on already deeply damaged ties. Pakistani officials said the attack was "deliberate".
As well as continuing tension over the opening of the Nato supply lines that run through Pakistan, fresh disagreement is brewing over the sentencing of Shakil Afridi, who is alleged to have helped the CIA find bin Laden using a house-to-house vaccination drive as a cover.
His 33-year jail term brought swift condemnation from Washington, including from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said the decision was "unjust and unwarranted". The US has cut aid to Pakistan by $33 million in response, $1 million for every year that Afridi faces jail.
Tension also remains over Pakistan's perceived unwillingness hunt down certain militant groups. Washington has long pushed for action, military or otherwise, against the Haqqani militant network, one of Nato's deadliest foes in Afghanistan, which is thought to operate mainly from Pakistani region North Waziristan. Islamabad has repeatedly said its forces are overstretched and it cannot afford to provoke a general tribal uprising. Reflecting American frustration with Pakistan, and the suspicion that there are links between Pakistan's powerful spy agency and militant groups, there have been many proposals to make US aid conditional on more co-operation in fighting militants.
What to watch:
-- Pakistan-US negotiations over changes to their relationship after parliament reviewed ties. When reached, any agreement will impact Pakistan's co-operation in stabilising Afghanistan.
-- Any further attack on Pakistan by Nato forces in Afghanistan could conceivably break the alliance completely, putting the war effort in Afghanistan at risk.
-- More aid cuts. Pressure is mounting in the United States to penalise Islamabad for failing to act against militant groups and, at worst, helping them.
-- Any further accusations from Washington, how Islamabad responds, and the tone of the rhetoric from both sides. The United States wants Pakistan to bring the Haqqani network into peace negotiations, but is wary of exerting too much pressure on Pakistan and forcing a break in ties.
INTERNAL SECURITY As well as bomb attacks in February which killed dozens in the north-west of the country, violence continues to affect parts of the southern port city of Karachi, Pakistan's financial hub. After several months of relative quiet in the city, violence - some of it politically motivated - has flared again recently.
More than 1,600 people were killed in the city in 2011, over half of them in political and sectarian violence, and paramilitary forces are often deployed there to stabilise violent districts. Violent but isolated protests against Pakistan's increasingly severe power crisis have occurred in several towns across Pakistan's largest province of Punjab. Although the trouble is not on a scale to widely disrupt law and order, frequent power outages across the country have in the past led to street violence.
What to watch:
-- Any escalation of power crisis which could lead to violent protests, and the authorities' reaction to those protests.
-- Further attacks by militants. The assaults on high-profile military facilities have shown the continued ability of Taliban fighters to attack even protected targets.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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