Raja's election

Given that the MQM had publicly stated that it would not support the candidature of Raja Pervez Ashraf and the scathing language used against him by PML (Q) parliamentarians in general and Faisal Saleh Hayat in particular who coined the epithet 'Raja Rental' his election reflects the success of President Zardari's policy of reconciliation, or so maintain PPP loyalists.
Its detractors point to the success of the policy of Muk Mukaa - a Punjabi phrase that does not do adequate justice to the English term wheeling dealing.
It can also be argued that Raja Pervez Ashraf's appointment is the outcome of the flawed policies of opposition parties within the parliament (PML-N) and outside the parliament (Tehrik-i-Insaaf). The two are engaged in confrontational politics which is quite obviously benefiting the PPP and its allies in Punjab notably the PML (Q). PML (N) is at pains to point out that it did field its own candidate but simply did not have the required numbers to ensure his victory; however the party must answer some other questions that are being quite legitimately raised.
The success of the President's politics is premised on his belief - a correct one so far - that the PML (N) will not resign en masse from either the provincial or the national assembly. The PML (N) response to this oft-repeated query is that if they resign from the national assembly the PPP would hold by-elections, no matter that democratic norms dictate that fresh general elections be held immediately given that they are mandated to be held in less than a year in any case; and that Punjab would be handed over to Governor Khosa who would then proceed to annihilate the PML (N) through fair and foul means in the next general election. In other words the PML (N) has no checkmate move to counter the PPPs.
In this instance it is pertinent to point to what was alleged to have been a skilful move to discredit the Chief Justice in the Malik Riaz versus Dr Arsalan Iftikhar case - a move checkmated by the Chief Justice himself through taking a suo motu notice and then recusing himself. Today Malik Riaz with his legendary wealth and tentacles reaching all centres of power in this country is finding it difficult to hire a lawyer to defend him. While many supporters of the Chief Justice maybe tempted to quote religious scriptures with a view to absolving him from the responsibility of acts, however objectionable and controversial, of his son others would dismiss it on the grounds that he was aware that his son, though dishonoured, may not even face jail term as it is not illegal for one man in the private sector to extend monies to another in the private sector. Analysts who refer to this example maintain that the PML (N) leadership is simply not willing to make any sacrifice and to some extent neither is Imran Khan who contrary to all survey results, continues to dream of sweeping the next elections.
There are several conspiracy theories as to why Gilani was let go ranging from the PPP co-chairman not wanting to become further embroiled in an adversarial position with the judiciary to some maintaining that Gilani had begun to ignore some directives emanating from the Presidency knowing that the President was no longer in a position to dismiss him. Some independent legal experts are challenging the Supreme Court verdict itself not in terms of the eventual disqualification of Gilani but in terms of what they claim are some disconcerting elements of the judgement on two counts that account for the judgement being seen as a political one. First, instead of outright disqualification of the former premier the SC verdict could have focused on the scope of the Speaker's authority and the Election Commission under Article 63 (2) and (3) where a ruling existed that would have automatically triggered the disqualification though a few days later. And, two, a three-member bench appears to have overruled the understanding of the interpretation of Articles 63 (2) and (3) of a seven-member bench that convicted Gilani. Or, in other words, they argue that the three-member bench's conclusion that articles 63 (2) and (3) are redundant in the case of disqualification required a larger (at least nine) member bench to be formed. Be that as it may these theories/arguments are now in the realm of history and the more crucial questions are was the first choice, Makhdoom Shahabuddin, the victim of a conspiracy as the timing of his arrest warrants raises questions? And, secondly, would the new Prime Minister serve the party well in the impending general election?
It was interesting to note that at the election session Makhdoom Shahabuddin was one of the few who, though smiling and chatting with his colleagues, did not approach Raja Pervez Ashraf though he did vote for him. The timing of his arrest warrants raises questions, of course. Conspiracy theorists maintain that since Gilani was against the Makhdoom's elevation therefore he, together with those in favour of the much wilier Raja Pervez Ashraf, may have maneuvered it. But considering that warrants against his own son were also issued at the same time Gilani was either willing to sacrifice his son for the short term or was simply not involved. Others state that the establishment, (ANF may come under the executive but is headed by an army man) was not in favour of the Makhdoom. Be that as it may there are few in the federal capital, who believe that there was no conspiracy and there is a near unanimity that the Makhdoom was a much better candidate than Raja Pervez Ashraf.
And finally would Rja Pervez Ashraf serve the party well? There is no question that he would serve the President even more loyally than Gilani. So no letter to Swiss courts and all directives of the Presidency meticulously adhered to. However, the government would more vigorously defend its cases in court with the objective of extending Raja Pervez Ashraf's premiership by as much as is possible (six to nine months considered ideal). His disqualification, all are agreed, is a matter of time.
However, the PPP leadership must be aware that loadshedding remains the single most major irritant with respect to the government's performance to date, an irritant that is daily spilling out on the streets of this hapless country; and no one, not even the current Minister for Water and Power is held responsible for the crisis as much as Raja Pervez Ashraf is. The rental power projects have been declared null and void by the court and National Accountability Bureau (NAB) is in the process of apprehending those responsible with our newly-elected Prime Minister having already given a statement in April to NAB. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the United States Justice Department has initiated an inquiry into the scandal following a request from Transparency International Pakistan.
Disqualification thus is a matter of time though the PPP would no doubt try to extend it by as much as it possibly can through its legal experts led by Aitzaz Ahsan and the non-legal ones led by the party co-chairmen and senior leaders of the party. The question that remains unanswered though many maintain it is likely that Raja Pervez Ashraf as Prime Minister would actually cost votes to the PPP in the coming election. Time will determine the accuracy of this assumption.
Next week this column would seek to analyse the reasons for the passage of the budget in record time!