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Easier trend was again witnessed on currency market as the rupee could not come out of sliding versus dollar during the week ended on June 23,2012. lost 35 paisa against dollar for buying at 94.35 and shed 33 paisa for selling at 94.38. In the open market the rupee lost 50 paisa against dollar for buying at 95.90 and depreciated by 20 paisa for selling at 96.10.
The rupee also fell in terms of euro, losing 50 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 120.00 and Rs 121.00 During the hustle bustle over the prime minister issue, the rupee could not get rid of weakness versus dollar, money experts said. Now country has new prime minister and newly elected Prime Minister Raja Perves Ashraf promised to provide basic necessities to the nation. In the beginning session of the week the rupee recovered on technical correction and in the absence of major payments, dealers said. Malik Bostan said that if dollar moves downward in the interbank market, the rupee may come down also in the open market.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday the rupee maintained recovery against dollar, gaining 35 paisa for buying at 94.00 and picked up 32 paisa for selling at 94.05. On Tuesday the rupee gained 25 paisa in relation to the greenback for buying and selling at 93.75 and 93.80. On Wednesday the rupee lost 50 paisa in relation to the greenback for buying at 94.25 and it shed 47 paisa for selling at 94.27. On Thursday the rupee extended its slide in terms of the US currency losing five paisa for buying and selling at 94.30 and 94.32. On Friday the rupee shed five paisa against dollar for buying at 94.35 and dropped by six paisa for selling 94.38.
OPEN MARKET RATES: On June 18, the rupee extended its appreciation against dollar rising by 60 paisa for buying at 95.40 and it gained 40 paisa for selling at 95.90. The rupee adopted the same pattern in terms of euro picking up 50 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 119.50 and Rs 120.50. On June 19 the rupee followed same pattern in terms of dollar gaining sharply by 90 paisa for buying and selling at 94.50 and 95.00. The rupee followed same trend versus euro rising by 70 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 118.80 and Rs 119.80. On June 20 the rupee followed same pattern in terms of dollar, falling by 60 paisa for buying at 95.10 and losing 50 paisa for selling at 95.50. The rupee also came under pressure in terms of euro, shedding 70 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 119.50 and Rs 120.50. On June 21 the rupee fell against dollar by 30 paisa for buying and selling at 95.40 and 95.80. The rupee also came under pressure in terms of euro, shedding 70 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 120.20 and Rs 121.20. On June 22 the rupee dropped 40 paisa against dollar for buying at Rs 95.80 and 20 paisa for selling at 96.00. The rupee, however, gained 40 paisa in terms of euro for buying and selling at Rs 119.80 and Rs 120.80. On June 23, the rupee shed 10 paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 95.90 and 96.10. The rupee also fell in terms of euro for buying and selling at Rs 120.00 and Rs 121.00. OVERSEAS MARKET OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, euro briefly hit a onemonth high against the US dollar after Greek parties supporting a bailout won a slim parliamentary majority, allaying fear of an immediate break-up of the currency bloc. Inter bank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar on Monday: 81.79- 81.85 (previous 81.80-81.85) Call Money Rates: 9.50-15.00 percent (previous 9.50-15.00 percent). The yuan closed up against dollar trading at its highest since May 30, buoyed by a rebound in the euro after pro-bailout parties in Greece won a slim parliamentary majority, allaying concerns of a messy Greek exit from the euro zone. Spot yuan closed at 6.3570 per dollar, up from 6.3651 at Friday's close and only 70 pips away from its opening price. The Indian rupee dropped to its lowest in nearly a week after the central bank kept the key interest rate and the cash reserve ratio unchanged, with a Fitch downgrade of the country's sovereign outlook also hurting. The rupee fell to as low as 56.04 to a dollar late in the session, and traders fear the currency could approach the record lows of 56.52 hit on May 31, should confidence in the domestic economy deteriorate, or if the global risk environment worsens. In the second Asian trade euro on recouped some losses sustained after Spain's borrowing costs spiked to euro-era highs, but gains were capped ahead of a debt sale which is likely to see Madrid's borrowing costs rise even more. Markets cut short Monday's honeymoon after a pro-bailout vote in Greece, pushing Spain's bond yields to 7.3 percent, undermining Madrid's ability to finance itself less than two weeks after the EU decided to lend it 100 billion euro to boost its lenders. The dollar versus the Indian rupee was available at Rs 55.98, in terms of the Malaysian ringgit was at 3.1550 and versus the Chinese yuan the dollar was 6.3560. Inter bank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar on Tuesday: 81.80- 81.86 (previous 81.79-81.85). Call Money Rates: 9.50-15.00 percent (previous 9.50-15.00 percent. In the third Asian trend euro eased versus dollar, but clung much of the previous day's gains, with investors focusing on whether the US Federal Reserve will adopt further monetary stimulus to support the economy's recovery. The euro also gained some support from signs that Greek parties may be close to forming a coalition government, and as Spanish government bonds gained a bit of respite on Tuesday after a recent sell-off. The dollar was trading versus the Indian rupee 55.94, the US currency was available at 3.1565 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was at 6.357 against the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar on Wednesday: 81.80- 81.84 (previous 81.80-81.86). Call Money Rates: 9.50-15.00 percent (previous 9.50-15.00 percent. In the fourth Asian trend, the dollar held above a one-month low against a basket of major currencies, no worse for wear even after the Federal Reserve delivered another dash of monetary stimulus and said it was ready to do more if necessary. Dollar bears were stopped from rampaging by the fact the Fed stopped short of launching a more aggressive programme of buying bonds outright, or QE3, which some in the market had expected. The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at 56.50, versus the Malaysian ringgit, the greenback was available at 3.1750 and the US currency was at 6.3618 in terms of the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar on Thursday. 81.72- 81.87 (previous 81.80-81.84). Call MONEY RATES: 9.75-15.00 percent (previous 9.50-15.00 percent). In the final Asian session dollar held near a one-week high against a basket of major currencies on Friday, supported by a long-anticipated rating downgrade of the world's major banks by Moody's while traders await the meeting of European leaders
Later in the day. Analysts commenting on the decline in the Indian rupee said that the rupee could continue to fall further in the near-term, dragged down by the momentum from the worsening global risk environment. They also said that 58.50 may not be seen in the next one week or so, but the current rally has the momentum to take it there. The partially convertible rupee ended at 57.12/13 per dollar according o SBI closing data, after hitting a record low of 57.32. The fall for the day pushed the rupee 1.4 percent below its Thursday close of 56.30/31. NDFs are pricing further weakness ahead, with the one-month offshore contracts quoted at 57.52 while the three-month was at 58.29. The rupee had hit its last record low at 56.55 just on Thursday as risk aversion this week has increased after weak global economic data and after the Federal Reserve disappointed investors with the size of its US bond purchases. At the week-end euro edged higher against dollar after its worst sell-off in more than six months, buoyed by the European Central Bank's move to make funding easier for struggling banks. The ECB said it would allow financial institutions to pledge a wider range of assets, including collateral of a lower quality, in exchange for cash. The changes, which will be worth over 100 billion euros, marked the ECB's second such move in months.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2012

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