Two years in power

ARTICLE: The year 2020 will be recorded in history as a year of severe global economic and political turmoil and uncertainty because of the outbreak of Covid-19. This deadly virus has spared no nation or economy around the globe. The year has so far witnessed a hype in friction between superpowers and re-alignments of allies - with each struggling to create economic and political space a new for itself. The trauma of coronavirus also ushered in a dramatic cultural change in businesses and social behaviours of people and nations.

Coronavirus pandemic crisis is still far from over - with a threat of a second wave looming over the globe. However, post-pandemic economic and political fallout has started to emerge. Much has changed and more will change. On the economic front, the businesses around the globe have been severely hit with shortfalls in revenue and sales. Enterprises, with shallow pockets, have branched out and more of them will branch out as their bailout by state and banks may not be forthcoming in these times. On the social level, unemployment and inflation have begun to take their toll and in many countries people falling below poverty lines are increasing.

China, alienated by the USA and its allies - first with trade restrictions and later shamed on account of spread of Coronavirus and happenings in Hong Kong, appears to have emerged out of the crisis with a growing economy and a newer resolve to take on adversaries - carving out in no time a leading role for itself in Asia and the Pacific in stronger alignment with Pakistan and Iran, is particular. The message is loud and clear - Asia is the China's turf and India better understand it.

Providence took hold of Pakistan's hand and to everybody's gleeful surprise, it too has emerged fairly well from the otherwise depressing global economic turmoil. Coronavirus in the country appears to have evaporated faster than expected with the new fiscal year surprisingly commencing on a promising note.

Exports recorded growth, imports receded, fiscal numbers improved, foreign remittances to Pakistan saw an unprecedented upswing. Business sentiment appears bullish which has translated into vibrancy in industry, real estate, Pakistan Stock Exchange and other businesses while Pakistan's foreign policy has worked remarkably well.

China, alienated by the West, has advanced the implementation of its vision to be a leading world power. China is now viewed as a power of influence in the region and not easy to be messed around. For China, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its access to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf through its Gwadar base is now crucial and urgent. China needs Pakistan more than ever. Hence-forth, it will be more of China, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey and less of the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Summing up this positivity, one is inclined to conclude that something right must have happened in PTI governance of last two years.

One thing which stands out is that governance has significantly improved and country's perception is much better. Notably, fiscal discipline has also improved with greater autonomy to Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and other government entities. Ministers, though inexperienced, appear motivated with an urge to deliver.

Good governance is the key to a nation's success or failure. Once governance based on rule of law and merit is in place, all other state matters begin to fall in place. In the remaining three years of this government's tenure, improvements are likely to be incremental and nothing dramatic on this account is foreseen. Under the given severe global and internal challenges, any level of improvement is commendable. Hopefully, Pakistan could be heading for a bit of better times.

(This writer is former President, Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce and Industry)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020