The real Covid-19 trials

ARTICLE: All eyes on vaccine trials. Most Phase 2 trials are positive. The Oxford Study has said chances of Phase 3 trials being successful are high. While the medical trials are complicated and so much of what happens in the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 hinge on them, the geo -political and socio-economic trials besetting the world are even more testing and complicated. The vaccine trials may solve the virus issues in a matter of time, the trials of making the right choices for the people of this world will set the direction for decades to come. These are testing times for not just people in the lab but for people in the political corridors, corporates in board rooms and families at home.

Covid-19 has broken many myths about the world, countries and businesses. The world came to a grinding halt for months on end. A sight only seen by citizens in horror movies. Cars vanished from streets, stores closed, parks empty, businesses quiet and restaurants and hotels haunted. Governments non-plussed and non-Government organizations perplexed. Never in a century has the world seen so much uncertainty, confusion and chaos in every part of the world. Normally, a virus would spread with a time lag. Ebola and HIV were regionally concentrated and thus when they reached other parts of the world they had already learned from the handling of the earlier countries. This was like seamless silent invader with 7 billion spikes affecting everybody at the same time. That is why each nation was experiencing the same problems.

While each country was beset with the same disaster their response to it was different. The choice of response resulted in different results for each of them. Making choices when no precedent is available is also tough and testing. It means decisions are not based on information but more on intuition. That is why the risk is high. That is why the pressure is high. That is why the stakes are high. That is why it is known as a test of character, values and attitude of the decision makers. The exposé during these five months have laid to rest some pre-held notions:

1. Developed nations have prepared future planning scenarios for many decades to come- The perception of the planned and forecasted base of developed countries has been shaken. For decades we admired the development model of these countries as being ready for any emergency or eventuality. The pandemic made a mockery of it. No country in the world was prepared for this virus despite there being some warnings about it. The think tanks, analysts and researchers were as confounded as the ordinary people.

2. Richer countries have the health systems that can cater to most emergencies- Another entrenched view was that rich countries have the best health systems vis-a-vis quality and capacity. As the pandemic peaked, countries like the UK, Italy and US presented scenes that were unimaginable. Hospitals overflowing, dead bodies lying outside and doctors and nurses unavailable.

3. Poor countries will crack under the weight of virus and stalled economies- Naturally when the richest and the mightiest were struggling the assumption was that the poor countries will go bust economically and medically. Yes, they were and are hard pressed but many have actually performed better than their richer counterparts. Vietnam was the first country to become virus-free and open and though some new cases have been discovered they are still much better than most. Pakistan has also displayed much better planning and resilience and is now being studied for what they did better than others.

4. Regional integration will bail member countries out- With a common problem a common solution was inevitable. However, US has split with China and spat with the World Health Organisation (WHO). The EU countries are still struggling to come out with a common strategy. Middle Eastern countries are even more inward-looking than before. Thus, a fragmented approach has made this pandemic more dangerous.

The pandemic has exposed the fragility of the world order. It has laid bare systems that look glossy and impressive but crack under pressure. It has made all the mighty statements of brotherhood and cooperation sound weak and hollow. One would of course argue that nobody could have predicted and can predict which way the virus will go and behave. Fair enough. But the counter argument would be the strength of systems and resources is precisely tested in times of trials and tribulations. Countries and individuals still need to reflect and reform their thinking and actions by:

1. Look back and learn- The first half of the year has been the toughest the world has seen for decades. So much that was not supposed to happen, happened. As they say adversity is an opportunity. What countries need to do is to learn why it happened and what they could have done which they did not. Global organizations such as the WHO and World Bank need to study the gaps and highlight the missing areas in research, analysis, forecasting, preparedness and contingency planning that led to this disaster. This study should highlight the global, country level and institutional gaps that fell apart to make the world crumble and stall.

2. Look forward and innovate- This study should then lead to a global commitment from every nation to work on these areas of forecasting, legislation, investment and action that are needed to prevent a second surge of the virus and new viruses from occurring or shocking the world as corona virus did.

3. In the changing scenario look for the permanent- Change is permanent but when sudden and unexpected change occurs uncertainty creates disorientation. Countries and individuals lose direction and crumble under immediate pressures. To find direction in this chaos go back to universal principles. Environment changes, situations change, programs change, policies change but principles do not change.

'People first' is the first principle. President Donald Trump has put his election first in handling Covid-19 and today the richest country in the world is suffering the most in the world. Second principle is Justice first and political expediency afterwards. Today India, after locking down occupied Kashmir for one year is finding that the entire country's lockdown has crushed the poor and still the virus is uncontrollable. Countries and businesses in a hurry to recover economies are foregoing principles to develop links with those who have created oppression. Opening trade with Israel without protecting Palestinians may seem a rational and pragmatic approach. However, rationality that is not based on humanity is the biggest failure of trials and tribulations that human beings have faced historically and are facing presently.

(The writer can be reached at [email protected])

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020