EDITORIAL: Finally, a serious publication of an internationally recognized organization has presented analysis of data sets that begin to establish a very direct relationship between economics and militancy and even acts of terrorism. The World Bank's research paper 'The Seasonality of Conflict' says, after analyzing the impact of the wheat harvest season on sub-national conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, that average cultivation intensity has tended to reduce terrorist attacks over time; by as much as 20 percent in Pakistan between 2000 and 2010. Data seems to show quite clearly that intensity of conflict in all three countries is lower during the harvest than at any other time of the year, and this trend is stronger in places that have larger areas under cultivation. The investigation found no evidence to suggest that proceeds from the harvest are used to promote or finance conflict in subsequent months. Altogether the paper seems to support one particular theory that says economics, or rather the lack of proper economic opportunities, drives more people to extremism and terrorism than any other factor.
This report could not have come soon enough because the widely held belief, pretty much all over the world, is that religion-inspired ideology is the principal driver of militancy and terrorism. This idea has spread especially since the onset of the 9/11 wars and western governments' desperate need to justify them. And indeed while some of the most powerful news networks of the world were spinning important international events to their own advantage, the worst of the most fanatic religious extremists were also misusing the scripture to justify their own 'holy' wars. But weren't the young recruits they routinely brainwashed into putting on suicide vests and planting Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) there in the first place just because their state of poverty meant that they really had nothing better to expect from their lives? Why, after all, would somebody in the prime of his youth willingly blow himself up and try and kill as many completely innocent people in the process as possible when he can live a good, decent life with a normal family? The World Bank's report also says that opportunity cost plays an important role as a determinant of conflict, even in insurgencies traditionally thought to be driven by ideology like the ones carried out by al Qaeda and Taliban in recent years.
The correlation between wheat harvest and terrorism is a very important indicator and it should prompt some deep thought in Islamabad at a time when the government is trying to right much of the wrongs of the past. Countries that have battled with terrorism - and Pakistan is no stranger to it - have finally begun to realise that a long list of factors goes into the making of a terrorist. When the best people can expect, especially among the poorer lot in the less advanced countries, is a life of deprivation just because of accident of birth, why wouldn't they be lured by extremist organisations that pay top dollar and also provide the kind of security that they couldn't have dreamt of in their normal lives? The only real solution for countries like Pakistan is easy to identify but rather long and difficult to implement. The state must promote basic education throughout the country. Individuals must not only be made smart enough to reject false propaganda, they must also be empowered enough to enter the job market successfully. That way they have a stake in the system and taking up arms against it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Making policy that impacts the bottom of the food chain can also be a very smart political idea because it engages a substantial part of the population which can then vote for or against it when the time comes.
Unfortunately, however, Pakistan has never been able to give education the kind of attention it deserves, even when leaders have realised the need to do more, because there is simply no money left after security and all the debt is taken care of. But now that a link has been established between education, rather the lack of it, and terrorism surely the state can see this matter through the lens of national security as well. If spending more on education means less terrorism and less needless deaths and chaos, then authorities must immediately find ways to divert a lot more funds towards it and devise a strategy that will completely overhaul and expand the present system. And it would contribute to no end towards nation building as well.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020
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