SYDNEY: Analysts have again upgraded forecasts for the Australian and New Zealand dollars in the latest Reuters poll, but still lag the market as investors increasingly wager on a lasting downtrend for their US counterpart.
Median forecasts put the Aussie at $0.7000 on a one- and three-month horizon, compared with $0.6800 in the previous poll. The market, however, already has the Aussie at $0.7195, having just hit an 18-month top of $0.7241.
Yet analysts doubt the rally can get much further, putting the currency at $0.7100 in six months and $0.7300 in one year. The Aussie was supported by the relative outperformance of the Chinese economy which continues to suck up Australian resources and boost prices for key exports including iron ore.
That has gifted Australia with its largest current account surplus in decades, providing a net trade inflow to the Aussie. Perhaps more importantly the US dollar was having troubles at home, with the rampaging coronavirus infections setting back recovery and stoking speculation the Federal Reserve will have to ease policy even further.
"The global economic revival underway is one where the US lags not leads the rest of the world. It implies a weaker USD," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.
The New Zealand dollar has benefited from similar forces, though again analysts polled seem to think it has topped out for the moment, putting it at $0.6600 in one month and $0.6500 in three. The kiwi was last trading at $0.6639, having climbed almost 3% in July to break major chart barriers and impress some analysts.
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