ARTICLE: The incumbent government that has concluded 'business-as-usual' will not get the nation where PTI promised the nation to be - a truly welfare state with a strong economy. Something different has to be done in the remaining next three years of the five-year tenure of the incumbent government to get there.
To achieve this, the government aims to double country's exports and rejuvenate its industry and production by adopting 'out-of-box solutions' to bring about growth in the economy and uplift in social welfare of the people. This, reportedly, has been underlined in a summary titled 'Strategy to boost jobs, economy and exports in next three years" to be pitched by Ministry of Industries and Production in an upcoming Economic Committee of Coordination (ECC) of Cabinet meeting.
The PTI government started its tenure on a promising public perception: it is a government for change in which status quo, lethargy and environment of 'business-as-usual' will be shunned by reaching 'out-of-the-box' solutions and an era of dramatic change will usher in to set right all the wrongs of past governments. This perception was reinforced as soon as ministers, advisers, special assistants and task force leaders were appointed to lead economy and social welfare programmes as a vast majority of them had enjoyed the distinction of having served past three governments one way or another.
The last two years witnessed some promising progress in areas which were out of focus of the past regimes; notably, education reforms, digitalisation of processes, foreign affairs and a welcome shift of government focus from elite privilege to public welfare.
The overall state governance improved and so did the country's global perception and stranding. Also, fiscal numbers and fiscal discipline improved. The restoration of independence of State Bank of Pakistan is a landmark achievement. In all these sectors an out-of-the-box approach worked well. The functioning of state regulators was, however, not reformed; the regulators were in fact tamed with the result that it is business as usual. They remain vulnerable to influence.
The economy and energy sector exhibit 'business as usual'. Exports are struggling to find ground for sustainable growth, FDI is stagnant, industry has not picked up, energy sector remains rudderless, circular debt continues to escalate, power generation and distribution in public sector continue to be inefficient and loss-making, the concessions derived by renegotiations with IPPs are insufficient to improve the health of the power sector or impact of any significantly on circular debt and loss-making public sector enterprises continue to drain the economy. All these sectors need solutions based on creative thinking.
If one checks the track record of all the economies of the world that have excelled in recent times then one can notice an identical pattern in all of them. All of these economies achieved excellence by breaking the shackles of status quo - be it mature or emerging markets.
Margaret Thatcher, horrified at the imminent threat of British economy collapsing and the nation's sovereignty at stake, shifted the British economy from government ownership and management to the private sector. Her step also helped liberate the economy from the clutches of bureaucrats and trade unions.
An identical pattern of success was followed by Dr Manmohan Singh in India, Mahathir Mohammad in Malaysia, Deng Xiaoping in China and others.
The Soviet Union missed out to react in a timely manner and paid a heavy price in the shape of collapse of its economy which was one of the principal reasons behind its disintegration.
The successful ones went for dramatic but creative changes with structural reforms, changed mindset, constitutional amendments and the innovative ways of doing business.
The task was difficult for them but the determination to make it happen was greater.
The incumbent government may not be able to adapt to change and respond to this level of fundamental changes in the given time-frame. At best, one may aim for incremental changes which may bring the nation somewhat closer to its economic and social welfare goals. This in itself will be quite an achievement in these times.
(The writer is former President, Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce and Industry)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020
The writer is a former President, Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Comments
Comments are closed.