2020 was the most awaited year. 2020 was a year culminating a successful decade of recovery from the 2007 recession. Big events were planned for signifying world progress. The Middle East had its eyes glued on Expo 2020, Europe on Post-Brexit redesign, US on Presidential elections, Japan on Tokyo Olympics, China and India on being the next Economic SuperStars and Pakistan had been declared by the World travelers indices as the most attractive country to visit in 2020. Looking back, perhaps the most repeated word about 2020 will be “Delete”. It has been like an unending nightmare. It has been a horror movie, but in real. It has been your worst fears coming true.
Rarely has the world seemed and been so clueless. Nobody expected it. Nobody expected it to hit the whole world at the same time. Nobody expected it to last so long. Nobody has any confidence in any projections any longer. It seems that the world has undone all its progress on planning, forecasting and projections of the last five decades. That itself has created a state of flux, chaos and commotion-all three are disabling for growth and development. The result of this shattering catastrophe in 2020 has made predictions just a toss of a coin. The pundits are predicting a U shaped, V shaped or an L shaped curves, etc. The curve is at the moment is so zig zag that its shape has lost is debatability. Some examples of this topsy turvy world are:
1 Wealth is not health- In disasters money talks. Famine, SARS, HIV the richest got the best and poor the worst. Corona has made the rich more vulnerable. Somehow the plush lifestyles of the rich with extremely protected immunity systems have made them an easier target for the virus than the disease hardened immunity of poor people. From Prince Charles, to Boris Johnson to President Trump no amount of top security has been able to keep the virus away. Similarly, both in the first and the second wave the hardest hit are European and American populations revealing the strange reality of paucity of health facilities despite the trillions spent on it.
2 Strategic Haze and Maze-The famous think tanks and scenario planners of the rich countries have tanked under the virus. They are struggling to find an effective response. While the first wave was new and took the whole world unawares the second wave is as slippery despite the supposed lessons from the first wave. Some are imposing lockdowns some not so. Economies, elections and life seem to be on tenterhooks with huge mental and financial distress exacerbating the situation due to constant uncertainty.
3 Emerging Powers on Trial-The challengers to world supremacy, Brazil, Russia, India and China are on test too. Brazil and India are the worst hit countries. India has the 2nd highest infection total and Brazil the third. China and Russia seemed to have escaped the worst. China had an early mover advantage while Russia has already started administering a vaccine but with controversial results and is now under the surging second wave.
4 Leadership Exposé- Perhaps the most startling revelation has been the leadership bankruptcy. From the Americas to Asia it has been a moment of truth for leaders. Rarely has the world history seen such paucity of quality leadership. Brazil and India have suffered massively due to Modi and Bolsonaro’s myopic approach. America and Europe have suffered from a complete absence of vision and strategy.
These changes have made it necessary to reimagine 2021. Who will emerge out of this crisis less battered, stronger, and more ready for a changing world will depend on how they deal with the following 2 challenges:
The Vaccine Race and Grab-The vaccine is supposed to be ready beginning 2021 for emergency use and probably mid-year 2021 for mass use. Thereafter will be a bigger trial than the vaccine trial. Nations will grab and buy and hoard the vaccine. Companies and agents will stock till their stock values hit the sky. There is a lot of talk of allocating share for poorer countries but the chances of anything like that happening are remote. China has an opportunity to share its vaccine with lesser developed countries and increase its goodwill progressively. It is already doing joint trials with Pakistan.
Leadership Grit and Guts-The true human colours become visible during times of life and death. This virus has cracked many artificially bolstered facades of humanity. The way senior citizens and elders were left to die in the senior citizens’ homes in Europe shows a very cruel side of the developed world. The way food was grabbed off the shelves with scant regard for others revealed the self-centered society of the West. Simultaneously, new leaders emerged. Angela Merkel of Germany and Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand stood out as they took the route of people first. In Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s focus on saving lives and livelihoods for the poor through the Ehsaas Emergency Programme has been rated as the best poor relief initiative in Asia. This is the time to join hands not just with China but with other countries to fight the battle for compassion and concessions for the poor. PM Pakistan can lead this initiative of 3Cs i.e Care, Compassion and Concession for the marginalized world in this Pandemic.
The new world order for 2021 and beyond is going to be a great contest. The contest will be between the hitherto powers and their model of stock value accumulation and the model of human value accumulation. There is going to be a serious challenge on the winner takes all approach. With economies battered by the pandemic the affluent markets of the future will be more hungry for Central Asia, Africa and Far East. For the Muslim world it is no longer a wake-up call but a shake-up fall. Oil will be reduced as a key commodity. Religious tourism wealth in Arabian countries will be uncertain and risky. Monarchies will be under pressure. Time for more progressive countries in the Islamic world to strategize and actually lead a renaissance.
Pakistan has a unique opportunity to capitalize on their shining performance in the darkest hour of the world. Who would have imagined that in the worst catastrophe the world has witnessed in 100 years Pakistan will be quoted as best practices example by WHO, World Economic Forum and United Nation Organizations. This is a moment of destiny for Pakistan. If it overcomes its internal fault lines, aggressively establishes its international presence and seizes the right initiatives it will have a unique opportunity in 2021 to become a key player in the new emerging order.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020
The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst and can be reached at [email protected]
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