Swedish, Norwegian currencies to keep gaining on dollar, euro

STOCKHOLM: The Swedish and Norwegian currencies are expected to strengthen against the euro and the dollar in the next 12 months, continuing their rebound from their dramatic slump in March, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange analysts showed on Friday.

In Norway, expectations of a possible interest rate hike and climbing oil prices will, according to analysts, drive gains, while expectations of global recovery from the coronavirus shock should bolster the Swedish crown.

Global shutdowns and the unprecedented collapse in business activity in the first half of 2020 hurt both countries, particularly Norway, when the price of oil, its biggest export, crumbled.

The Norwegian crown tumbled to all-time lows in mid-March but has mostly recovered after oil prices rose and the Norges Bank increased its daily purchases of the currency.

The Swedish crown fully recovered after hitting a 11-year lows against the euro and a 18-year low against the dollar in March.

By this time next year, the Swedish crown is predicted to rise to 10.10 to the euro from 10.491 now, the median forecast showed.

The Norwegian crown is seen trading at 10.2500 to the euro one year from now, up from around 10.9400 now and 22% above an all-time low set on March 19.

"There is a still a hangover from March for the Norwegian crown," Nordea Chief Analyst Niels Christensen said.

He said the Norwegian currency had more room to gain because its recovery lagged that of its Swedish counterpart.

Although Sweden's authorities avoided hard lockdowns other European countries had imposed, its export-oriented economy and the currency were hit hard by the global market slump in March, and then benefited from the subsequent upswing.

"The strong recovery by the Swedish crown over the summer fits with strong rally in global equities," Christensen said.

Sweden's Riksbank taken some emergency steps, but has resisted cutting interest rates, keeping the benchmark at 0.0%, giving the crown an advantage over currencies from countries which have slashed rates.

In May, Norway said it would spend an equivalent of 424.6 billion crowns ($45.6 billion) from its oil fund, a flow of money which would boost its currency once converted back into the crown.

Norway cut its key interest to zero in May, but in June Norges Bank said it expected to hike rates in 2022, making analysts optimistic that the crown will continue to strengthen.