Portents of trouble ahead

The war of words and hostile rhetoric between the government and the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) continues unabated. If anything, the daily diet of such rhetoric is stoking the fires of a possible confrontation between the two sides with consequences that may go beyond the contenders' aspirations. Shaikh Rashid, that irrepressible mouthpiece of the establishment, has hinted as much the other day, but it is not known whether this statement is his own initiative or dictated by the powers that be.

The descent of the political discourse into the gutter was initiated by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI), even when it was in the opposition. Since being 'installed' in power two years ago, their language towards the current opposition has if anything become harsher and even more abusive. Unfortunately, although milder, the opposition's counter-statements too seem to be incrementally imitating the PTI's example. Arguably, when Imran Khan downwards, government ministers and spokesmen are being downright rude and abusive, a calm and reasoned tone would help the PDM's cause more than going down the PTI's ignominious path in this respect.

The reason for the hotting up of political contention between the PTI government and the PDM is not difficult to discern. The latter's recent rallies in Gujranwala, Karachi and Quetta assumed momentum. The PTI's rhetoric after these mobilisations appeared tired, repetitive and less than credible. The PDM's case against what they dub as an inept, incompetent, 'selected' government is gaining weight. However, what the PDM has not so far done, and given its disparate character may well be unable to do, is to translate the support from the suffering masses into an active force on their behalf by carving out a programme that addresses their economic woes. So far, the PDM keeps recounting the people's sufferings and laying the blame (naturally) at the Imran Khan government's doorstep, without offering anything resembling a roadmap to relieve this affliction.

The PDM's case, as is well known by now, consists of the accusation that the PTI government was imposed on the country by means of a rigged election in 2018. Nawaz Sharif, in his incendiary speeches to the Gujranwala and Quetta rallies (he missed the Karachi one) has focused his critique on COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa and the ISI chief, Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed, as the architects of this alleged electoral hanky panky. Nawaz and subsequently the PDM leaders have been attempting since then to defend this charge in the face of the government's verbal assault on Nawaz and the PDM that by attacking state institutions, they are speaking the country's enemy's language and following his agenda. The government's resort to the 'patriot' and 'traitor' card is as old as the country itself, and somewhat timeworn. The PDM is taking pains to distinguish its critique of these two individuals of the top military brass from the institution of the armed forces per se.

Nawaz Sharif having thus put the cat among the pigeons, it became a foregone conclusion that as a result, the role of the military in politics (which enjoys a long and not very illustrious pedigree in our history) would once again assume centre-stage despite the establishment's efforts to be kept out of the current fray. The issue has by now become so fraught that the daily dose of rebuke and abuse between the government and the PDM cannot continue like this indefinitely. The pressure has reached a point where something's got to give.

Interestingly, as a report has highlighted recently, the government's allies have assumed a pregnant silence in this fracas. Ordinarily, these allies would be expected to rise in defence of the major component of the ruling alliance, i.e. the PTI. But the occasional mealy-mouthed criticism of the PDM aside, not much has been forthcoming from this source. The reasons are unknown, but one speculation is that these 'seasonal birds' are waiting to see which way the wind blows before they exercise their well known alacrity for switching sides to the winners.

The Jamaat-i-Islaami (JI) has finally decided to come out with its protest campaign against the government. This is going to be a solo flight because the JI has serious reservations about, and conflicts dating back to the Afghan Mujahideen struggle with Maulana Fazlur Rehman and his Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F). What a turnaround from the days when Imran Khan's early mentors in politics included the JI and late ISI chief Hamid Gul. Such are the vagaries of time and politics.

The PTI government is under severe criticism for its disastrous handling of the economy whose problems have been exacerbated by the corona pandemic. The excuse that Imran Khan and his government have been trotting out ad nauseam that they inherited an economy in crisis from the previous Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government no longer washes with public opinion two years down the road. Instead, the PTI government's handling of the sugar, wheat, food crises, its inability to fully embrace CPEC's advantages (and overcome its disadvantages), its lack of plan for the revival and flourishing of industry, commerce and agriculture, i.e. the real economy, and its focus on controversial, showpiece real estate projects such as the Sindh and Balochistan islands and the Ravi Riverfront project in Lahore reflect the lack of vision of this government. Imran Khan may have hoped to rope in his foreign funding friends who helped finance his philanthropic projects (and, the accusation standing before the Election Commission states, the PTI itself), but he may by now have discovered the chimera that hope was.

In Pakistan, it seems the more things change, the more they remain the same. In a familiar pattern, Imran Khan, with his unending abuse of and threats (and actions) against the opposition, has once again, like Ayub, Bhutto, Zia and Musharraf in the past, united the opposition against his government. Questioning the patriotism of opponents and dubbing them traitors is nothing but reflective of the bankruptcy of the PTI government's narrative. Judging by the past again, if the government follows through on its anti-PDM rallies in some meaningful way, the chances of street clashes cannot be ruled out. Then the Shaikh Rashids and other Cassandras may well be proved right about the political class's inability to handle things democratically to prevent an extra-constitutional intervention as has happened in the past. At present, before things get out of hand, the establishment should rethink its failed experiment a la Imran Khan, and agree to fresh, genuinely free and fair elections if it wants to prevent the whole house crashing down around our ears.

Unfortunately, the forum where political differences and conflict should be resolved in a civilised, democratic manner, i.e. parliament, is dysfunctional under the abusive exchanges and partisan political role of the Speakers, who are expected on assuming office to shed party loyalty and become impartial custodians of the House. On the contrary, the Speakers not only openly favour the treasury benches in the House, they even indulge in political statements in its favour outside it! Woe betide such a parliamentary dispensation posing as a democratic one.

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Copyright Business Recorder, 2020