The people have spoken

The nail-biting finish to the incredibly close US presidential election is finally here. Democrat Joe Biden has won, Republican controversial President Donald Trump has lost. The margin of victory so far in the popular vote shows just how close this race has been: Biden 74.6 million to Trump's 70.4 million votes. However, given the peculiarities and complexities of the US election system, this translates so far into 279-214 electoral college votes for Biden, a clear margin of victory from the 270 required. Once all the votes have been counted and legal challenges met, Biden is widely expected to garner 306 electoral college votes, ironically the same number as Trump in 2016. Accompanying Biden on the stage in his home town in Delaware was running mate Kamala Harris, who becomes the first woman, and that too of colour, to ascend to the Vice Presidency.

While the US media has declared victory for Biden, Trump in his usual arrogant style refuses to concede gracefully as is the tradition, instead going on endlessly about the election being rigged, stolen, not yet over, in the face of the overwhelming facts to the contrary. His legal challenges are being questioned even by some Republicans by now since he has failed to produce even a shred of evidence to justify his outlandish claims.

No one could possibly envy Biden for the tasks and challenges he has inherited in a deeply divided and conflicted US. Biden spoke to this when he vowed to unify the US, turn the page on the era of demonisation Trump unleashed, and reached out in traditional style to Republican supporters not as enemies but fellow Americans. The challenges confronting Biden are headed by a formidable list: Covid, the economy, racial inequality and oppression and climate change. On each of these, Biden will first have to overcome the Trump legacy of domestic mismanagement and divisiveness and international isolationism. Trump's handling of the pandemic has shot the US into the unenviable position of being one of, if not the deadliest, countries to suffer a tragic loss of life, widespread infection, and its concomitant impact on the economy. Recovery of the latter will dictate reversing the ultra-nationalism embedded in the 'America first!' slogan in a globally interconnected economic landscape. That includes toning down the harsh rhetoric against China, the second largest economy in the world after the US. Biden has committed to returning to the Paris accord on climate change that Trump departed.

While the domestic challenges to Biden in a deeply polarised US cannot be underestimated, the world has watched this election with bated breath to see what the result will bring to various parts of the globe and the individual countries within them. Foreign policy, as always, will be the focus of extraordinary interest by US allies and 'enemies'. First and foremost, given Biden's commitment to a more rational policy towards Iran rather than the aggressive moves the Trump administration stood out for, the implications for the Saudi-led anti-Iran regional Arab front promise change. Biden in his election campaign had declared he would reassess US ties with Saudi Arabia, centring on the butchery of journalist Jamal Kashoggi in the Saudi Istanbul consulate, ending US support for the Saudi-led Yemen war, and the detention of Saudi women activists. Iran welcomed the chance afforded by Biden's victory to compensate for past mistakes, without offering a friendly tone.

Biden's foreign policy, given his long experience in the field as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Vice President under Obama, will be characterized by fundamental departures from Trump's erratic, unpredictable style. This means a return to a more traditional approach that seeks to repair the damage to old alliances such as the trans-Atlantic one and the replacement of Trump's nationalist isolationism with multilateralism in an effort to restore the US's badly damaged global leadership role. Reaffirmation of ties with European allies, re-engagement with international institutions and recommitment to NATO are expected.

Biden's win has set off speculation about the US role in the longest running conflict in the Middle East - the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Since the Palestinians are currently being abandoned by more and more Arab countries in the region, Biden's victory is being posited as potentially troublesome for Israel and helpful to the beleaguered Palestinians. But this should not fool us into thinking that Washington's pro-Israel fundamental stance will alter. All it means is that Biden is more likely to engage with the Palestinians estranged from the US and return his country to the previous broker's role again. The most extreme of Trump's concessions to Israel such as the West Bank settlements and annexation of the Golan Heights may be revisited, but the Israelis have little to fear and the Palestinians little to cheer in the change in the White House.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has appealed to the incoming president to continue support to his government, both military and economic, and calibrate the withdrawal of US troops with progress in the peace negotiations. His nemesis, the Taliban, have declared they expect Biden to adhere to the accord arrived at with his predecessor. It is too early to say what if any change can be expected in this regard.

Pakistan, as usual, pitches high hopes from every new occupant of the White House. However, while Biden may continue to work with Islamabad in the Afghan theatre, the unrealistic hopes of some that the Kashmir conflict will see a more sympathetic treatment seem exaggerated. The US's commitment to forge an anti-China alliance with India is unlikely to allow too much change in Washington's policy towards the Kashmir issue. Sadly, that means the suffering Kashmiri people continue to be virtually alone in their struggle for self-determination and against oppression.

Of course all this is preliminary and only when Biden enters office on January 20, 2021 will these foreign policies assume clearer shape. The likelihood is a return to more traditional diplomacy in a sharp turn from Trump's dramatic unilateral nationalism.

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Copyright Business Recorder, 2020