Desperate and deadly

It is do or die. Rather do and die. After coronavirus, 'Trump virus' has reached Pakistan. Coronavirus does not matter. People need to get rid of the government more than the virus. Rallies are not a super spreader. These are all pearls of wisdom by Trump during his electoral campaign. Similar is the logic given by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) for their campaign. The "put caution to the wind strategy" has endangered many lives in Pakistan. In Trump's case it was understandably an electoral campaign and thus do or die for him. In PDM's case there are no such urgencies then why this desperado frenzy?

Pakistan emerged an unlikely hero in the first wave of coronavirus in the world. From the WHO to the WEF all are praising the way Pakistan managed the first wave. So much so that WHO has included Pakistan in the top 7 countries who are examples for the rest of the world to follow. The WEF (World Economic Forum) actually dedicated a day for celebrating Pakistan strategy for managing lives and livelihoods in an exemplary manner. If the world is acknowledging Pakistan why is the opposition bent upon discrediting the government. The obvious logic is that they are the opposition and the role of every opposition is to oppose the government. But to oppose for the sake of opposing is not a good enough reason for this desperately risky strategy. The most likely reason for PDM for this frenetic pursuit of rallies is three-fold:

1. Public Interest - PDM says that they are taking these rallies out to fight for public rights. They say that the twin issues of inflation and unemployment have hit the public in a bad way. That is a good cause to take on. Food inflation had really spiked in the months of October and November. Shortage of wheat and sugar had hit the market. Prices of vegetables had escalated. However, in the last two weeks inflation and food inflation has seen a decline. Import of sugar and wheat has decreased prices. Petrol prices and electricity subsidy to exporters and small medium enterprises had eased the pressure on production. As the macroeconomic variables are steadily improving and the microeconomic variables are also responding PDM realized that their window of opportunity to harp on public issues was a few weeks. That is why they are in a hurry to create as much political noise as possible before the inflation tames down.

2. Personal Interest - Each of the 11 members of PDM has a personal stake in this movement. The three main parties - PMLN, PPP, and JUI-F - have corruption cases against their leaders. These cases traditionally have been there for a long time. With the National Assembly in recess due to coronavirus the only chance of them discrediting the institutions is through rallies and public speeches. The second and third tier leadership is now being apprehended by anti-corruption bureau. If they do not manipulate and pressurize the government or institutions to give them relief they will be in endangering their future lives and wealth. The mafias who have supported these irregular deals are also in danger of losing their clout. That is why they feel that this movement is their last-ditch effort to save themselves.

3. Political interest - The PDM alliance is fragile. The motive behind these rallies is divergent. JUI-F wants that the government should be removed and if required resignations from the assembly should be made. PPP being in government in Sindh would not agree to that. PML-N is taking on the institutions with the hope that the anti-establishment sentiment will pull crowds and also get indirect support from external players. PDM will be united till the three main parties contribute equally to the agenda. As the movement enters the sit-in stage there is a likelihood of support thinning out. Before that happens it is important to use all its political muscle to create unrest enough to negotiate a deal that gives them some personal and political relief.

Their common narrative is that the 2018 elections were stolen from them by the institutions. That has lost resonance over a period of time as they have not been able to consistently make this a rallying cry for public support. The fact that petitions filed to the ECP on rigging were less than 50% in 2018 compared to 2013 and those too with little back up evidence has resulted in a lack of credibility. Add to that the reports by the EU monitoring team and FAFEN (Free and Fair Election Network) clearly point out that despite irregularities the 2018 elections were far better in management than 2013. FAFEN reports have quantified that there were 62% less irregularities in 2018 elections as compared to the 2013 elections. That is why it is important for PDM to do whatever they want to do in the next few weeks or they will be politically stranded.

The government on the other hand wisely let them have their rallies till Multan. The reaction to Multan rally was unwise and unnecessary as it gave a new lease of vigour to the PDM. The government must not let the same be repeated in Lahore. Minar e Pakistan is a big ground and will need a special effort by all 11 parties to make it look packed. The reliance will be on the madrassa students of JUI-F. The government must not give in to the temptation to resist the rallies. Maulana Fazl Ur Rehman has reportedly made it clear that he is looking for a "danda bardaar" fight- a fight which could turn into bloodshed. That itself will create a political clash that will only serve the agenda of those desperate to collect brownie points on the political table.

As we head towards the new year it is a battle of nerves. The opposition will throw everything in. The government must have the steel to let it pass. With coronavirus threatening to multiply, an unruly mob is the last thing the government can afford. On the other hand for PDM time is running out and not having an upheaval is unaffordable. In this game of political chess let us see who blinks first.

(The writer can be reached at [email protected]. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of the newspaper)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020