In one fell swoop the rebels have turned tables on the Syrian regime. In a bomb attack at the National Security Bureau in Damascus on Wednesday they killed three, may be four, most influential members of President al-Assad's inner circle including Defence Minister Dawoud Rajiha and his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat who was directing the murderous campaign against the rebels. Among the wounded included Interior Minister Mohammad al-Shaar and head of National Security Hisham Ikhtiar. Though by now quite a few important defections from the armed forces have taken place but this is the first time that rebel forces successfully penetrated right into the heart of the regime's power centre. Throughout the last 16-month anti-regime struggle the rebel strongholds, and collaterally innocent Syrians, were targets of the government forces, with deadly count by now of some 17,000 lives. In the capital too the rebel positions were often the target of the regime forces, but not until early this week when rebels counter-launched what they called 'battle for liberation of Damascus '. In all probability, the attack on the security headquarters, decapitating of regime's killing machine may turn out to be the tippling point - a la the bomb attack on Yemen's strongman former president Ali Abdullah Saleh who did survive the attack but lost his will to tenaciously hold on to power forever. Of course, the turmoil in Syria is a logical sequence of the Arab Spring, but it's qualitatively different from what had led to the overthrow of dictatorial regimes in Egypt, Libya, Tunis and Yemen. Quite early in the crisis-situations over there the regimes had lost international support as global community spoke against them and acted collectively in favour of the insurgent movements. But that's not the case in Syria. In the regional context, the regime has the unqualified support of Iran and on international level the diplomatic backing of Russia and China, who tend to freeze in tracks any UN-mandated action against President al-Assad. Not unsurprisingly then the Kofi Annan's six-point peace plan remains unimplemented. But with battlefront having shifted so close to the government power centres now, the pro-regime regional and international players are expected to reframe their perspectives. The rebel attack killing President al-Assad's close confidants is certainly a game-changer and may trigger more serious developments inside Syria and outside at international forums particularly the UN Security Council. While the Russians now agree that "decisive battle" has begun in Syria the Americans who had preferred to watch the game from the sidelines believe that President al-Assad is "losing control" as the EU is for the resurrection of Kofi Annan-led initiative. But if the history of the Assad dynastic rule is anything to go by the situation in Syria remains pregnant with a lot of uncertainty as to what new course it would take in the wake of latest events in world's oldest capital city. Quite a few things can happen. There is a possibility that the regime would intensify its anti-rebel military action even by bombing the insurgents hideouts with chemical weapons - as did Saddam Hussain when his forces frequently used nerve agents and mustard gas against Iraqi Kurds living in the country's north. Then as to who comprises the rebel forces there are conflicting claims. The Free Syrian Army has claimed responsibility for the attack on security headquarters, to be countered by the Liwa al-Islam (Brigade of Islam). Given that both in Tunis and Egypt the rebellions brought pro-Islam parties and groups to the fore quite a few Western governments are in double-mind over developments in Syria, some expressing fears that the Syrian crisis may deteriorate into a full-blown sectarian civil war and spill over into neighbouring states because of composition of societies and sectarian ethnic dimensions. Perhaps they should know that had not happened in Tunis and Egypt where religious forces did emerge as the net gainers from the revolts but they did not prove to be al Qaeda or its genre. There is also the possibility, however remote, that President al-Assad may opt to step down to allow peaceful transition and thus avert Syrian being plunged into a civil war. It's here that international community particularly his sympathisers should weigh in with al-Assad.
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