‘Referendum’ lost?

It is a referendum. It is the ultimate ultimatum. It is the decider. It is do or die. These are some of the slogans Pre-Lahore showdown of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). The hype built was impressive. The result a disappointment. From claiming an all-time great gathering of people at Minar-e-Pakistan to the rather sparse show, PDM is now lost for words, strategy and moves. They have wasted the last ten days insisting that there were many more people but the media failed to show them. In doing so they have actually reinforced the image that the rally being a flop.

The biggest of the show has to have meticulous planning and execution. Lahore after all, was, and is supposed to be a city where the strongest PML-N support lies. With 9 out 13 seats won by PMLN in the 2018 elections and almost 20 in the provincial assembly it was a sweep. This made maths simple. To fill the big ground a few thousand people from each constituency plus the JUI-F activists would be enough to overflow the ground. Unfortunately, almost 70% of the ground was empty. This dismissal by the Lahoris stunned PDM and they were fumbling for excuses and groping for the next plan. An immediate ‘long-march’ would have been a disaster and thus all they announced was that they will meet at the beginning of February to decide when to meet again to decide on when to meet again. This “anti-climatic” pause in the movement is due to the following reasons:

1. Miscalculated Zeal- The pre-Lahore rally in Multan misled PDM. The rather poor handling of the government in not allowing the rally at Qasim Bagh stadium and putting all types of barriers gave a boost to the Multan rally. The media covered every move of the government for days and made some people heroes without the song. This made PDM confident that the government is going to repeat it in Lahore and add to their narrative of government being afraid of the public support of the parties. Maryam Nawaz did rallies in the main constituencies of Lahore and drew good crowds. Such response added to the PDM estimates of a “historical” turnout. Both were miscalculated. Government wiser on Multan’s mishandling gave a free hand to PDM. The road rallies by Maryam Nawaz were misleading as road stopovers are local events where area people gather on street for a short while without having to leave their localities. That is why despite a good hype the greater Iqbal Park looked deserted especially when Nawaz Sharif was speaking.

2. A meaningful Call to Action- The art of sustaining a movement is to motivate people to come for some greater purpose or some worthwhile call to action. The Lahore jalsa was the moment of truth. Not only was the attendance of the people disappointing, the speeches of the main speakers lacked lustre with nothing new to stimulate the crowd. The personal venom of PML-N and PPP against being asked to explain their wealth and the anti-Punjabi rhetoric of Achakzai made the stage look like a Hyde Park vent out corner. The fact that they had to convene a meeting after the rally to make another announcement of the next steps put a bad light on the opposition’s ability to sustain momentum.

3. Too many Leaders-Another problem that PDM is facing is the plurality of leaders. Every party has their own leader and agenda. Maulana Fazlur Rehman is the PDM head whose agenda is not necessarily fully subscribed by all parties. Inter-party and Intra-party troubles have started brewing. The maulana’s own stalwarts like Hafiz Hussain Ahmad and Maulana Sheerani have moved away. PPP is quietly distancing from JUI-F. Bilawal did not come on the Mardan rally and the Maulana has declined to come to Larkana rally on 27th December. PML-N is already facing the heat of Maryam’s speeches and displeasure on Lahore performance. Both Pervez Malik and Ayaz Sadiq have refused to be Lahore’s President. This has created distance between the leaders themselves and inter PDM that may increase with passage of time.

The government has played smart. They did not interfere with the Lahore rally and thus deprived the opposition of the chance to blame them for the thin turnout. They have also given signals of calling an early Senate election to create rift in the opposition regarding resignations. With the bye-elections also coming in February the PDM may announce further postponement of the movement as indicated by Rana Sanaullah. These are all signs of a disoriented group of people who are struggling to stay relevant to the electoral process yet castigate the stated interference in it.

For the government the challenge has never been the opposition from the other parties but the opposition from their own supporters. The government has been struggling with the expectation management of people. The euphoria of expectations of a quick turnaround in the fortunes of the country was built on years of promises made by the government. These promises were made on the basis of the mismanagement and corruption of the previous regimes. What they are finding out is that the roots of bad governance are deep and wide. Unlike political opponents the bureaucracy etc. cannot be removed that easily. That is why wheat, sugar and gas shortages occurred and are taking time to correct. For the government, the real challenge for 2021 will be when the debt relief periods are over. The next 2½ years of the government have to focus on timeline based targets that create jobs, housing and social welfare services like health and education. That will be the best way of making the opposition irrelevant and managing the expectations of the people.

(The writer can be reached at [email protected]. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of the newspaper)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020