Amid rising political tensions and chaos the only thing on course are preparations for the upcoming general elections. Former Justice Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim took oath on Monday as the new Chief of the Election Commission as a consensus candidate of all major political parties.
Although as per a constitutional requirement the government was to seek the approval of only the Opposition, the Nawaz League consulted parties outside Parliament as well before giving its assent. Hence there was no doubt in anyone's mind that he meant what he said when soon after taking oath he averred at an Election Commission meeting that "we have only one-point agenda, and that is public justice through free, fair, transparent and impartial elections so that no one can ever point a finger at the impartiality of the EC. And all employees of the EC should work to achieve that goal."
To achieve that goal, though, the EC would be dependent on the government machinery. It is just as important, therefore, for major political players to agree on a new caretaker setup. This will be the first time ever that elections would be held under neutral caretaker governments. Like in the case of CEC's appointment, such a setup is to be headed by someone who has the support of both the government and the Opposition. Some names have emanated from governmental quarters, but so far none of them has caught the fancy of the PML-N. The two are expected to settle the issue without much hassle despite the tensions generated by the ongoing government-judiciary confrontation over the Swiss money laundering case involving President Zardari.
The Nawaz League surely deserves credit for acting in a mature manner and to seek the consent, while deciding the CEC nominee, of other parties as well, including its harshest critic, Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf. Once again, it wants to widen the scope of consultations for the caretaker setup. Speaking in Lahore the other day, Nawaz Sharif said that all the political parties, including those which have no representation in Parliament, should be consulted on the issue. He may be doing this to avoid any controversy at the election time; and also to generate goodwill that would be helpful in forging alliances, if need be. Whatever the intention, the move will strengthen democracy in this country.
In a seemingly unrelated but curious development the MQM has suddenly gotten active following party chief Altaf Hussain's recent speech in which he raised the spectre of some threats to the country. He proposed that all parties come together and chalk out a future line of action to "save the country". Accordingly, MQM delegations have been calling on political and religious parties' chiefs with the stated objective of developing a consensus on unspecified threat issues raised by Altaf Hussain. Following a meeting with President Zardari on Monday MQM leader Raza Haroon told journalists that the President assured the delegation that he would advise Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf to convene an all-party conference to save the country.
The country has been facing serious threats from various directions for quite some time. Karachi, MQM's home base, is a constant source of concern nation-wide for relentless targeted killings. And the MQM itself is blamed for causing much of that problem. So what could be grave new threats that only the MQM knows and others don't? The answer: none. Why then all this activity? It is linked to the party's preparations for the upcoming elections. Being a small though important regional party it needs to forge post-election alliances with some big winners in order to claim a share in power both in Sindh and in Islamabad. Despite the Zardari government's 'reconciliation policy', tensions persist between the MQM and the PPP cadres in Sindh. The PML-N and the other remerging political force, the PTI, make no secret of their reservations about the MQM. The present move is aimed at placating those parties to create a space in a future ruling alliance.
Meanwhile, the other players have also started positioning themselves for the big event. There is talk of the Nawaz League and the PTI forming an electoral alliance. Any alliance between the two, either for electoral purposes or for government formation, is out of the realm of possibility - the cliché politics is the art of the possible notwithstanding. PTI Chairman Imran Khan regularly subjects the PML-N leadership to personal attacks because he sees it as a strong rival and Zardari-led PPP a weak one. He has been saying he would prefer to sit on the opposition benches rather than to join a coalition with either of the other tried and tested parties. It is important for the PTI to stand alone for the simple but compelling reason that its growing popularity comes from its appeal as an alternative to the PPP and the Nawaz League. Hence, the party is not going to do anything that might compromise its position as an alternative to the two main parties which have been taking turns at the helm - barring Musharraf regime's long interregnum - since 1988.
An informal understanding on seat adjustments is likely, though. In Punjab for instance, the constituencies where the Nawaz League has a strong presence, PTI may decide not to put up its own candidate. The PML-N may act likewise in order not to allow the opposition vote to be divided to the PPP's advantage or, in the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to that of the ANP. Notably, during the recent by-election in NA-151 Nawaz League did not contest the seat for want of an electable candidate in the constituency; instead it encouraged its supporters to vote for the key challenger, Shaukat Hayat Bosan, brother of a PTI leader who fought junior Gilani as an independent candidate (the PTI has been boycotting by-elections as a matter of policy citing irregularities in voters lists). Such a strategy will minimise the chances of a hung parliament at the Centre and weak squabbling coalition governments in the provinces. Will they or won't they actually adopt it? If the mood in the Nawaz League's circles is anything to go by, the party is ready for it. The PTI should have no qualms about it, either.
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