A military advance by government forces into Tajikistan's lawless east is being presented in Dushanbe as a bid to arrest a former warlord, but critics say the ultimate aim is to secure power for President Emomali Rakhmon. Government forces in the Central Asian country are chasing Tolib Ayombekov and his supporters who are accused of killing a security-service general.
Tajikistan has closed all border crossings to Afghanistan, apparently for fear that Afghan fighters may enter the rugged Gorno-Badakhshan region to join in the fray. But the Tajiks are letting Nato trucks carrying supplies to Afghanistan pass through.
Smuggling has been one of the few means to earn a prosperous living in roadless Gorno-Badakhshan, where drugs, cigarettes and gemstones can move through without customs agents noticing.
The official closure of the border is unlikely to change a great deal: anyone, including radical Islamists, can flit between Afghanistan and Tajikistan without much hindrance.
Critics in the former Soviet republic say the mission to arrest Ayombekov and three aides, who are accused of killing security service chief Avdullo Nazarov on July 21, is just a pretext for Rakhmon to consolidate control.
One expert, Arkadi Dubkov, said Rakhmon's aim was to move before next year's presidential election to crush a range of die-hard opponents who have taken refuge in Gorno-Badakhshan.
The operation is the first military incursion by the central government into the region.
Dushanbe does little to combat poverty or improve infrastructure in the mountains and has allegedly had a pact with the dominant clans, giving them a free hand in exchange for a vow to cause no trouble.
Rakhmon may have decided to abandon that accord.
"It looks as if he wants to conduct a purge in the region," said Nosir Rasimov, a political analyst.
Ayombekov, who is being pursued by troops backed by military helicopters, was an enemy of Rakhmon during Tajikistan's 1992-97 civil war, when an alliance of Islamists and democrats tried to unseat the president.
Under a peace accord, Ayombekov was handed authority over part of the area bordering Afghanistan, which proved a boon to his lucrative business as a smuggling boss.
Strongmen like Ayombekov hold sway in the mountain regions, where people depend on them for a livelihood and offer absolute loyalty in return.
That social reality suggests a military incursion by Rakhmon's forces is unlikely to bring lasting control to the president in a region which makes up half Tajikistan's land area.
Clan leaders have reportedly offered to lay down their arms, but nothing has been heard from Ayombekov. Political analysts say the military may claim a triumph but it could be a pyrrhic victory for the president, costing him authority and his credibility.
The violence could even trigger another civil war. The conflict in the 1990s cost tens of thousands of lives.
Tajikistan's neighbours are worried at the past week's developments. Nato troops are set to leave Afghanistan in 2014 and both Islamists and smugglers are consolidating their positions.
Neighbours such as Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are concerned the developments could embolden Islamic extremists.
Olim Sherzamonov, leader of the Social Democratic Party in Gorno-Badakhshan accuses the government forces of "ethnic cleansing," saying, "Vengeance for the security service chief's murder is just a smokescreen."
Residents of Khorugh, 520 kilometres south of Dushanbe, say their town has been hit by government air raids and women and children have been among dozens killed. The government in Dushanbe rejects those claims as untrue.
Independent reporting from the scene of the conflict is all but impossible, with telecommunications cut off and access roads closed.
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