Aftab-ur-Rehman Rana is the President of Islamabad-based Sustainable Tourism Foundation Pakistan (STFP). He is a renowned tourism professional, having worked with both government and non-government organisation on policy and capacity-building issues. Mr. Rana is also member of National Tourism Coordination Board and member of Board of Directors of PTDC. He has also been associated with the Adventure Foundation Pakistan and has been working as tourism development consultant with a number of international and national donor agencies including World Bank, ADB and USAID. He has an MBA in Tourism and Hotel Management; besides he is a Fellow of ‘Leadership for Environment and Development’.

As the tourism season commences in a couple of months amid the uncertainty, BR Research reached out to the leading Pakistani tourism expert to understand how the tourism industry has coped during pandemic and what lies ahead. Selected excerpts are produced below:

BR Research: One year after the pandemic started, where does the tourism industry of Pakistan stand in terms of its financial viability?

Aftab-ur-Rehman Rana: As you know that Covid-19 was an unprecedented challenge all across the world. The global tourism industry, which had been growing consistently since the end of WWII, came to a halt last year. After a year of losses, the tourism industry has been set back by at least three decades in terms of progress. This was a crisis bigger than the 2003 SARS scare and the 2008 global financial crisis. Some regions were able to operate their tourism industries, but nowhere at capacities seen in previous year.

Pakistan’s tourism industry also suffered deeply, as the period from March 2020 to August 2020 was marked by Covid-related lockdowns and mobility restrictions. The loss of business meant that a lot of entities had to lay off employees and close down offices temporarily. Our estimate is that between 1.5 million to 2 million employees, especially in hotels and restaurants, were hard hit during this time. About $3 billion in financial losses were suffered by the industry in that time period.

BRR: What kind of government support was provided to the tourism industry in last one year? To what extent has it helped in managing the loss of livelihoods?

AR: Early on in this crisis, the federal government created a national level Tourism Recovery Action Committee to steer the tourism industry through this turbulent time. That committee, which I had the opportunity to chair, involved the representation of both private and public sectors. There were many laborious meetings over several weeks on how to face this crisis and get out of it. Ultimately, by May 2020, we were able to develop standard SOPs for the tourism industry. We also prepared a strategy for the government on how to mitigate Covid-19.

As the government itself was facing fiscal pressures, it wasn't in a position to offer any major incentives for the tourism industry. The federal government, however, waived license fees for tourism operators, hotels, restaurants and travel agents for one year. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government also did the same, albeit other provincial governments have yet to pass such a measure. Besides, there were several national measures that also helped the tourism industry, including concessionary loans to businesses to meet overheads and cash flow issue of SMEs. Also assistance was provided to low-wage employees under Ehsaas program all across Pakistan.

On the recommendations of the Tourism Action Recovery Committee, the lockdowns and restrictions on tourism sector were relaxed in early August around a time when the tourism season was still ongoing. The government launched timely SOPs and trainings on how to implement SOPs, and we were saved from an extreme crisis. This helped mobilize domestic tourism, and the months from August to October saw business return in the industry. This created an opportunity for the industry to generate reasonably good revenues and stay afloat.

Thankfully Pakistan did not face a very strict crisis in the latter half of 2020, and some form of winter tourism was there in the last few months. Pakistan already didn’t rely on foreign tourism a lot, as domestic tourism was providing main revenues. So, the return of domestic tourist market, which is about 1.5 million annual tourists visiting the northern areas every year, was the critical factor helping the industry last year.

BRR: How has the private sector coped with the loss in business?

AR: When 2020 had started, the private sector was hoping it would be an unprecedented business year. After all, the 2019 season was a success due to a number of government measures, and steps like liberalized tourist visas helped Pakistan’s tourism industry to be seen in a new light abroad. So the private sector was making investments in hospitality sector to meet the expectations for 2020 and beyond. But then Covid-19 came and it shocked the private sector. The crisis even wiped out significant number of smaller and new players, but many struggled to strive by partially reducing its staff and closing down properties to reduce the operational cost and overheads.

BRR: What are the examples from across the world where some countries have managed to keep their tourism industry safe with targeted measures despite the Covid-19 crisis?

AR: The common theme among countries that were able to operate their tourism industries to a certain degree is the low severity of Covid-19 there. Countries like New Zealand, China, Sri Lanka, Nepal, even Turkey and UAE (Dubai mainly) were able to open up for tourism quicker than other countries in Europe and North America where the severity of the crisis was greater. Those regional countries, just as Pakistan, were able to quickly design and implement SOPs for tourists.

BRR: Have you seen an increase, decrease or no-change in the pace of development projects in the industry (e.g. hotels, motels, restaurants, cultural sites, heritage buildings, etc.)?

AR: Before the start of the pandemic, there was a clear momentum in the industry, ever since this government took over in 2018. The Prime Minister himself had instructed Punjab and KP to improve their tourism infrastructure by launching new projects. However, tourism development projects in the public sector and capacity expansion in the private sector suffered a major blow due to closure of government offices and loss of business, respectively. Covid-19 affected the pace of development that had been carried forward from 2019. The National Tourism Coordination Board (NTCB) was set to launch a national tourism strategy in March last year, but the crisis affected everything.

BRR: The Spring season is here, but so is a third Covid wave. How will this emerging threat affect the resilience of the tourism industry?

AR: We are hopeful that the upcoming tourism season will be better than the last season, if things did not deteriorate. We have recently witnessed renewed interest from international tourists, overseas Pakistanis and of course the domestic tourists. It all depends on whether the government is forced to go for a strict lockdown in the third wave. We are hoping that by May, the government will launch the national tourism strategy as well as the tourism brand campaign.

As for the tourism industry, it needs to ensure compliance with SOPs so that we can manage this season without increasing risks to health and lives of the locals as well as visitors.

BRR: Your organization’s stated mission is to promote sustainable tourism in Pakistan. How has the pandemic impacted the drive towards sustainable tourism in Pakistan?

AR: I can submit that awareness around sustainable tourism has increased during the pandemic. Especially when it comes to health and hygiene-related issues, which were not being treated seriously in the past. Now the private sector is genuinely interested in discussing how to improve the standard and quality of their hospitality services. Therefore, we are currently working on national minimum standards for tourism and hospitality sectors, which lay emphasis on sustainability angles. Even at the government level, emphasis is on tourism development projects that are focusing on more responsible, eco-friendly and sustainable develop principles.

BRR: Let’s move to the structural issues facing the industry. Given that tourism is a devolved subject, has the creation of the National Tourism Coordination Board made a positive contribution in resolving key issues across the country?

AR: In my view, the National Tourism Coordination Board has helped in filling the gaps in tourism-related issues that had emerged post-Eighteenth Amendment. This board has representation from all provinces as well as private sector tourism trade associations. Some key federal institutions are also on board, a result of which can be seen in new tourism visas regime that have now been made much easier to obtain.

This platform has at least helped in easing the bottlenecks at the federal level and developing an effective communication among the provinces. There is work being done on local business facilitation and international tourism promotion. Similarly, there are reforms in the PTDC’s mandate so that it gets out of business mode and comes into facilitative mode to play an active role in the promotion of Pakistan as tourist destination on the global tourism map.

BRR: While road infrastructure is gradually improving, there seem to be issues relating to capacity improvements in hospitality infrastructure and application of modern waste management practices in major tourism hotspots. How likely is it that investment will pour into these areas in the short to medium term, in the context of near-decimation of tourism revenues?

AR: In my experience, the private sector is not short of investment opportunities in Pakistan’s tourism industry. As local tourism demand has been increasing in certain destinations, investors have been coming forward with their projects, especially in boarding and lodging. The only concern is whether they will be able to get some good return on their investments. We need to remember that, over the past couple of decades especially, Pakistan has been in the throes of one crisis after another. Besides having to face natural disasters, private sector had remained shy also because of terrorism incidents and the general law and order situation.

However, in recent years, the security conditions improved a lot, as a result of which tourism traffic considerably improved in pre-pandemic era. Consequently, major tourism destinations started getting a lot of investment, especially in transport and hotels & restaurants segments. Then, CPEC, which is expanding connectivity from north to south and improving accessibility, will also create opportunities for entrepreneurs in this sector. A case in point is Multan, where you can now find scores of reasonable quality hotels compared to just a few in the past, as there has been an increase in business travel. Then there are overseas Pakistanis who are also interested in building hotels and restaurants in tourism hotspots of Pakistan.

Where investment has been lagging is in tourism operations. Because Pakistan’s reliability is mostly on domestic tourism, there is a trend of self-reservation and self-travel that reduces the need for planned tours through tour operators. The investment in tourism operations is linked with foreign travel, as foreign tourists need assistance in hotel reservations, ground handling services and transportation. As the country gets out of this crisis and the economy improves, I am hopeful that this area will pick up, too.