Yuan inches up, markets await key policy meetings

SHANGHAI: China's yuan inched up against the dollar on Monday, while investors awaited key policy meetings at home and abroad for more clues about policymakers' priorities that could affect exchange rates.

Markets expect US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to shun talks of tapering bond purchases at this week's policy meeting, which is set to end on Wednesday, with such expectations pressuring US Treasury yields and the dollar.

Prior to the market opening, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 6.4913 per dollar, 21 pips firmer than the previous fix of 6.4934.

In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.4855 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.4880 at midday, 83 pips firmer than the previous late session close.

Traders said the yuan was likely to track the dollar and swing in a thin range before the outcome of the Fed meeting.

Many market participants were also awaiting the April politburo meeting, the top decision-making body of China's ruling Communist Party, for comments and guidance on policy deliberations.

"In the upcoming April Politburo meeting, policymakers should maintain the current policy tone of 'no sharp turn', but tighten more on the margin," Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note.

A trader at a Chinese bank said markets were anxious to confirm that an imminent policy tightening could be delayed after China reported slightly weaker-than-expected first quarter GDP.

"The improving market sentiment due to easing fears over (premature) tightening supported RMB asset prices, which also underpinned RMB's outlook in the near term," said Tommy Xie, head of Greater China research at OCBC Bank.

The yuan posted its third straight weekly gain last week, while official data also showed that the yuan's CFETS index basket, a gauge that measures the yuan's strength against major trading partners, snapped three straight weeks of losses.

The country's foreign exchange trading platform releases data on a weekly and monthly basis.

"PBOC's policy exit won't be easy this round, requiring extra caution and a careful policy calibration to avoid unpleasant fallouts," Citi analysts said in a note.

As of midday, the global dollar index fell to 90.718 from the previous close of 90.892, while the offshore yuan was trading at 6.484 per dollar.