Stock markets rise as Fed looms, Biden prepares to speak

HONG KONG: Asian and European markets mostly rose Wednesday as investors awaited the end of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting and Joe Biden's first speech to Congress later in the day.

There was no inspiration from Wall Street, which provided a tepid lead despite another day of forecast-beating earnings, which analysts said indicated the latest rally may have run out of steam.

While in some countries vaccines are rolling out, lockdowns are easing and economies are recovering, there is a growing concern that frightening spikes in others -- particularly India and Brazil -- could deal a blow to the global rebound.

Adding to the mix is the long-running worry about inflation, with many observers warning that the expected surge in economic activity and demand will put massive upward pressure on prices that will force central banks to hike interest rates from their current ultra-low levels.

With that in mind the Fed's meeting this week will be pored over for an idea about its plans for monetary policy as the recovery in the world's top economy gathers pace.

Fed boss Jerome Powell is expected to repeat his mantra that borrowing costs will be kept at record lows until unemployment has been tamed and inflation is consistently running hot. Still, many feel the bank might not be able to stick to that if prices continue to surge.

"The economic outlook now is starkly different from when the Federal Reserve last met in March," said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson. "With their primary concern being to try and temper market optimism about a strong economic rebound, against rising expectations that the US central bank might start to look at tapering its bond purchase programme, or start to raise rates well before 2024, in the face of concerns about sharply rising inflationary pressures."

And Komal Sri-Kumar, of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies Inc., told Bloomberg TV that while the Fed was "oriented toward the market", he warned that traders were now hooked on the low rates and were now dependent on the bank's largesse.

"If the Fed chairman changes tack you're going to have a massive market correction," he added.

Still, the outlook remains positive, with analysts at Värde Partners saying in a report: "We see a strong backdrop to the economy and more evidence that there will be a material demand rebound in the second half.

"There have been no major signs of economic or consumer resilience or resolve falling away in the meantime. Rates remain the biggest risk factor to markets in our view, away from the obvious of a step change in the pandemic.

"Having said that, it seems to us difficult for rates to move substantially higher in the near term given the sharp moves of the first quarter and the still subdued economic environment."

The next key event after the Fed will be Biden's address to Congress, in which he is expected to unveil another huge spending plan, this on families, that will be paid for with taxes on the very wealthy.

Asian equity markets mostly rose, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Manila, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta all seeing healthy gains, though Seoul and Taipei slipped. Singapore was flat.

London, Paris and Frankfurt all rose in the morning.

Oil prices edged up slightly, extending the previous day's strong rally of more than one percent.

Observers will also be keeping a close eye on copper, which on Tuesday hit a decade-high near $10,000 per ton thanks to strong Chinese demand and tight supplies. The metal is considered a bellwether of the global economy as it is used in an array of goods.

Key figures around 0810 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.2 percent at 29,053.97 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 29,071.34 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,457.07 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 6,974.88

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.2073 from $1.2095 at 2110 GMT

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3878 from $1.3911

Euro/pound: UP at 86.99 pence from 86.90 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 108.97 yen from 108.68 yen

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $63.11 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $66.57 per barrel

New York - Dow: FLAT at 33,984.93 (close)