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Currencies mixed as focus turns to Czech central bank

  • Central European rate-setters are facing rising inflation, but look set to keep rates low for the time being to help their economies recover from the effects of the coronavirus.
  • "This picture, however, cracked somewhat with the GDP result for the first quarter released last week, which showed the economy did better than thought."
Published May 6, 2021

Central European currencies were mixed on Thursday, ahead of a Czech rate setting meeting in which the central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs stable, but which could provide hints at possible pace of policy tightening.

Central European rate-setters are facing rising inflation, but look set to keep rates low for the time being to help their economies recover from the effects of the coronavirus.

On Wednesday the Polish central bank kept its main interest rate at an all-time low of 0.1% despite saying that it sees above-target inflation in the coming months.

The Czech central bank was also due to present its quarterly update to its macroeconomic outlook on Thursday.

"Earlier remarks by the central bankers suggested that the unfavorable epidemics development pushed the central bank towards lower outlook for the domestic economy," Raiffeisenbank said in a note.

"This picture, however, cracked somewhat with the GDP result for the first quarter released last week, which showed the economy did better than thought."

The Czech crown was 0.10% weaker against the euro at 25.81 by 0952 GMT.

The Polish zloty continued to slip, weakening 0.29% to 4.5836. Central Europe's most liquid currency has been affected by worries concerning upcoming sittings of the Supreme Court concerning Swiss franc mortgages, a major risk factor for Polish banks.

"Before we hear the Supreme Court ruling on the Swiss mortgage saga we expect the volatility to remain elevated," said Piotr Poplawski, senior economist at ING.

The Hungarian forint was 0.12% stronger at 358.44, after gains in the previous session.

"This means that the rate fell under the 200-day moving average of 359.4, but we cannot yet unambiguously say that the long-term moving average was broken," Erste Bank wrote in a note.

The bank said that the firming was due to the recent steps to gradually reopen the economy. "It's been typical for the forint so far to react to news about the pandemic in both directions."

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