'Liberalising trade with India will benefit Pakistan immensely,' Ikram Sehgal, defence analyst

BR Research: Escape from Oblivion, your latest book was published recently. What was the motivation behind this book?
Ikram Sehgal: The book I feel has been long overdue. This happened about 40 years ago and previously I had been constrained by my official position at that time from relating the sequence of events. Given the fact that my father was Punjabi and my mother Bengali, and that I was serving in the Pakistan Army at the time, I was right in the eye of the storm. I also had many feelings that I felt I must give voice to, as I did not like many of the things that were happening in East Pakistan. Even now, there are people who are critical of my views because I stood up to what I believed was not right.
To summarise, I was taken prisoner of war and transported to an Indian internment camp. I escaped from that confinement and eventually reached West Pakistan. So, the book traces that journey, the events preceding it and the feelings that surround it.
I hope that this book is able to capture the dilemma of 1971. It is not easy to pontificate on that event in our history. Both sides engaged in killings, both sides were responsible for some horrific happenings that should never have taken place.
BRR: Let's switch gears to the security situation in the country. First, in your opinion what are the terms of engagement that Pakistan has agreed to in reopening Nato supply routes?
IS: Pakistan is stuck between a rock and a hard place, the Afghan Taliban are fighting a civil war, but the Pakistani Taliban are simply terrorists: During the course of the civil war, they may use terror but here terror is the only objective.
Now, we cannot dissociate ourselves from whatever is happening in Afghanistan. We are part and parcel of the problem and the solution. Unfortunately, the Salala Base attack was unprovoked and left Pakistan with no choice but to shutdown Nato supplies. During the time that supplies were suspended, there were tall claims from the other side regarding the use of the northern supply route but this is mostly exaggeration. The simple fact is that those routes are not only 8-10 times more expensive, but are also quite time consuming in relative terms.
The dilemma for Pakistan is that we have to engage the terrorists but we cannot attack the Afghan Taliban whose biggest presence here is the Haqqani Network. Given the nature of our relationship with the Afghan Taliban and our adversity to the Pakistani Taliban, we have to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds. It is not as if the Americans were wrongly accusing us of having linkages with the Taliban; it is a simple fact that we cannot just turn our faces to them.
As American losses pile up, the momentum of their exit will gather pace and one day they will leave the region. When that happens, they will leave behind the elements of a civil war which shall have three sides: the Uzbeks and Tajiks shall form the Northern Alliance, the Hazaras shall be in the West while the Eastern and Southern portions shall be divided among the Taliban.
So, unless Pakistan plays a role and convinces the different sides to engage in dialogue, there will probably be further strife and bloodshed. There are factions that are not on the best of terms with Pakistan, improving relations will take some doing but it can be done.
BRR: Internal security situation is also quite precarious. What is needed to address growing incidence of terrorism, violence and crime?
IS: There are definite linkages between terrorists and other criminals; be it, in terms of the exchange of arms, intelligence or funds: they are all connected. Now part of the problem due to which the government response has been so lacking and ineffective so far is that we do not have a functioning representative government in place.
Functioning democracies derive their legitimacy from the grass-roots level through local bodies. Unless we have local body elections, we cannot overcome the farce democracy dominated by a couple of family dynasties. Briefcase ministers fly in, take oath, hold office and then fly out. Unless politicians are sieved through the grass-roots level, the dismal state of governance will not improve.
Communities have vested interests in ensuring that there is harmony in the locale so people are more activists in terms of local issues. They will themselves ensure more accountability among their representatives in government. If we cannot function well in communities, we cannot hope to function as a nation.
BRR: See-saw relations with India appear to be improving at one moment, only to be stalled the next moment. Do you see meaningful progress emerging from the latest bout of interactions between the two countries?
IS: Sometimes you hear about families where one sibling shuns the others after the former comes across riches and able to afford a life better than the others. In a way that is what happened between India and its neighbours including Pakistan.
As their economic progress rocketed, there seemed to be a consensus among the Indian intelligentsia that they did not need Pakistan. Now as that economy is cooling again and the importance of regional trade is becoming apparent in the aftermath of the economic recession in the West, there appears to be realisation across the border that relations between India and Pakistan must improve.
For that reason, I believe that relations will continue to improve in the immediate future. After decades of misadventures such as supporting the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka, the Indians have realised that the pragmatic approach requires peaceful relations with other countries of the region. Pakistan too shall have to be pragmatic in forging regional alliances in the near future.
Liberalising trade with India will benefit Pakistan immensely. It is true that we may lose out in some sectors like pharmaceuticals and automotives, but in terms of agricultural produce, we stand to gain access to a huge market. Small and medium enterprises will similarly gain access to much bigger and more diverse consumer segments.