The PBS has recently released the detailed results of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. This enables analysis of variables which were not made public earlier, including the size of the youth population, size distribution of settlements, out of school children. Labour force participation and unemployment rate, migrants abroad, housing conditions and so on.
The first question relates to whether the ‘youth bulge’ has persisted or not. The Census reveals that 39.9 million out of the total population of 207.7 million were in the age group, 15 to 24 years. This indicates that the share of youth population was 19.2 percent. According to the 1998 Population Census, the corresponding number was 25 million. Therefore, the number of youths has increased in the inter-censal period by almost 60 percent, as compared to the cumulative growth in total population of 61 percent. As such, there is evidence now that the youth bulge is not increasing relative to the population.
The estimated share of urban population in 2017, according to the Census, was 36.4 percent. The definition used to identify the extent of urbanization was to quantify the population in settlements with municipal administration, ranging from a metropolitan corporation to a town committee. The definition used in earlier censuses was to treat a settlement as being urban if it had a population of 5000 or more, irrespective of whether it had a local government or not.
The release of information on the population of rural settlements indicates that as many as 7103 had population of 5000 or more in the country, with a total population of 71.3 million. Only 1 percent of these settlements had a local government in 2017. Consequently, most of these settlements have been excluded from the enumeration of urban population. If, in fact, they had been included, based on the earlier definition, then the share of the urban population is substantially higher, well above 60 percent. Therefore, the rate of urbanization in Pakistan appears to have been understated. This observation has also been made elsewhere about the understatement size of the urban population, for example, in India.
Turning to access to schooling, the Census reveals that 18.6 million children were out of school in 2017. 31 percent of male and 38 percent of female children were not in a school. The current estimate is that almost 23 million children are out of school.
The number of Pakistani citizens who are living abroad has also been estimated in the Census. It is reported at 5.2 million. The provincial distribution gives an indication of the destination of home remittances. 56 percent were from Punjab, 19 percent from Sindh, 17 percent from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the remaining 8 percent from Balochistan.
The size distribution of rural settlements highlights the inter-provincial variation in the unit cost of providing services. If the population is in larger settlements, then there are likely to be some economies of scale due to the higher population density. The share of rural population in settlements with population of 5000 or more was 49 percent in Punjab, 57 percent in Sindh, 68 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 45 percent in Balochistan.
The labour force and number employed at the time of Census enumeration vary substantially from the findings of the Labour Force Survey undertaken by the PBS in 2017-18. According to the Census, there were 42.8 million persons aged 10 years or more who were working, including unpaid family workers, and 4.4 million were seeking work.
Therefore, according to the Census, the labour force participation rate was 31.7 percent. This is much lower than the estimate by the 2017-18 Labour Force Survey of 44.3 percent. The unemployment rate according to the Census was 9.3 percent as compared to the estimate of 5.8 percent by the Survey. Therefore, labour market conditions were worse in Pakistan than has hitherto thought to have been the case.
The Housing part of the Census contains a lot of useful information on the state of shelter in the country. First, the inequality in access to housing in vividly highlighted. There were as many as 1.4 million families of eight or more persons who lived in only one room. At the other extreme there were 1.8 million households in housing units with 6 or more rooms.
The tenurial status of housing has also been identified by the Census. A high proportion, 82 percent, of units were owner-occupied and the share of rented housing units was close to 12 percent. A perhaps surprising finding is that 6 percent of the families lived in rent-free housing. According to the periodic PSLM Surveys by the PBS, the distribution of housing units by tenurial status is very similar to that revealed by the Census.
The period of construction of housing units has also been determined in the Census. Less than 2 percent of the housing units were under construction. 15 percent were built between 2012 and 2917. 30 percent were constructed between 2007 and 2012 and the remainder, 53 percent, prior to 2007. Therefore, the peak in annual housing construction activity appears to have been between 2007 and 2012. Interestingly, there were apparently 0.8 million housing units which are over 50 years old. The incidence of full pucca construction of housing units was 34 percent.
There are also estimates by the Census of access to residential services. 31 percent of the housing units had inside tap water, 9 percent with access to gas for cooking and 88 percent to electricity. The widespread ownership of mobile phones was confirmed at 98 percent. It was 59 percent in the case of access to TV.
The 2017 Population Census has generated a lot of useful information which will facilitate a more equitable distribution of public services and resources in future. It is sad that it took four years for the detailed results from the Census to be released.
(The writer is Professor Emeritus at BNU and former Federal Minister)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
The writer is Professor Emeritus at BNU and former Federal Minister
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