Pakistan has made its choice

Speaking nine days after the deadliest terrorist attacks in the history of the US on the sunny morning of 11 Sept 2001 (9/11), President George W. Bush asked America’s military to “be ready.” He said America is a country awakened to danger and called to defend freedom. “Our grief has turned to anger, and anger to resolution. Whether we bring our enemies to justice, or bring justice to our enemies, justice will be done,” he said.

While the ruins of New York’s World Trade Center were still smouldering, President Bush put nations around the globe on notice: “Either you are with us, or you are against us.” One late night in September 2001, President Pervez Musharraf also received this ultimatum from Bush - as Washington readied for war against the Taliban regime next door in Afghanistan for which Pakistan’s support was essential. In his memoirs, President Musharraf recalls being told by the Americans that “if we choose the terrorists, then we should be prepared to be bombed back to the Stone Age.” Pakistan pledged unconditional support to the US.

After 20 years, its troops have left the country, transferring the charge to the Afghan armed forces. The relationship between Pakistan and America in these 20 years has been deeply characterized by mutual suspicion and mistrust; it survived well on need basis.

Over the years, the US has firmly aligned itself with India as its strategic partner in economy, defence and diplomacy in the region. “Pakistan is just considered only to be useful in the context of somehow settling this mess which has been left behind after 20 years of trying to find a military solution when there was none,” pointed out Prime Minister Imran Khan while talking to foreign journalists this week in Islamabad. “I think that the Americans have decided that India is their strategic partner now, and I think that’s why there’s a different way of treating Pakistan now in Afghanistan,” he said.

In the meantime, Pakistan too has made its choice. It has now firmly, if not exclusively, aligned its economic, defense and diplomatic interests with China’s. In all probability the choice made by Pakistan is the right one. Over the last 70 years, the US never intended to build strategic relations with Pakistan because of India’s preference in the region, which has been overtly and covertly enjoying America’s support. Relations between Pakistan and China have always been exemplary. In this decade in particular, China-Pakistan relationship has turned into a firm economic, defense and diplomatically strategic partnership with CPEC playing the role of a catalyst. In recent years, China’s economic and defence alignment with Asian countries has increased manifold and so has its influence in Asia and Asia Pacific. For Pakistan, China is perhaps the only choice to align with.

Washington has been pressing Islamabad to use its influence over the Taliban to broker a peace deal as negotiations between the insurgents and the Afghan government have stalled, and violence in Afghanistan has escalated sharply. Arriving at some political settlement in Afghanistan is difficult under the current conditions. Dynamics of global influence have dramatically changed since 2001. Pakistan has been consistently advocating an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution to the conflict. The country’s approach, however fair and realistic, has consequences for it. The US and its Allies will react and may try to isolate Pakistan economically and diplomatically. This phenomenon can escalate in coming years. For Pakistan, this is a time of great caution but not fear.

The space being created by the US and India –- the nations of influence — through their exit from this landlocked country will be surely filled up by China and Russia. Pakistan’s position will be protected by the two in the mutual interests of all three.

(The writer is a former President, Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce and Industry)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021