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Markets

Rebound in commodity prices, weaker dollar lift Latam currencies

  • Rising oil prices lift Brazilian real, Colombian peso
  • Chilean peso rises as copper prices advance
  • Most EM stocks higher, Brazilian equities fall
  • All eyes on Jackson Hole symposium later in the week
Published August 23, 2021

Most currencies in commodity-exposed Latin America enjoyed a bounce on Monday, as prices of oil and copper rebounded and the dollar slipped from multimonth highs amid doubts about the course of US monetary policy.

Currencies of oil exporters, including the Colombian peso and Brazilian real, firmed about 0.4% each, taking cues from an over 4.5% jump in crude prices. Mexico's peso, however, gave back gains made earlier in the day.

Chile, the world's largest copper producer, saw its currency rise 0.6% as prices of the red metal advanced in anticipation that recovering global growth and the needs of a lower-carbon global economy will drive demand.

A weaker dollar, which dropped from over nine-month highs, also provided emerging market currencies some breathing space after Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan, a well-known hawk, said he might reconsider the need for an early start to tapering in monetary stimulus if the coronavirus harms the economy.

Mexican peso drops 1% to lead losses in Latam as COVID-19 cases surge

Global markets started the week on strong footing, with Asian stocks and currencies leading gains after a report from China's health authority showed no new locally transmitted cases of COVID-19 for the first time since July.

"The week starts with improved risk sentiment on the market after the stock markets in Asia were able to recover somewhat in the first few hours of trading and since the pandemic seems back under control in China," said Esther Reichelt, foreign exchange and emerging markets analyst at Commerzbank.

The MSCI's index for Latin American currencies and its stocks counterpart rose 0.5% each.

Stocks in Latin America clocked their worst week since February on Friday amid concerns of the impact of Chinese regulations both locally and globally, as well as data showing a slowdown in growth, especially from the world's two biggest economies last week.

Commerzbank's Reichelt also pointed to investors being more cautious than optimistic; "concerns from last week are still having an effect ... even though it was certainly not a new realization last week that the Delta variant is increasingly spreading."

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Chilean stocks opened 0.5% higher, while Colombia's COLCAP index gained 0.6% by 1412 GMT.

Sao Paulo stocks, however, struggled for direction as gains in oil major Petroleo Brasileiro were offset by political and fiscal concerns.

Investors are awaiting the US Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which will now take place virtually on Aug. 27 and not in person as previously planned.

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