Afghan conundrum

The Taliban takeover following US troops’ withdrawal is realigning geostrategic positioning in the region. There are opportunities and threats for all players, including Pakistan. The question is what leverage Pakistan has in the process and how the country can manage its risks. This will not be an easy task.

In the short-term, Pakistan is helping evacuate foreigners from Afghanistan, and the next step would be to facilitate formation of an inclusive government in Kabul. Once these processes are successfully managed, likely in a few weeks, Pakistan may have little leverage on affairs in a Taliban-led Afghanistan.

Thereafter, Pakistan would face a few big challenges. These include not letting Afghanistan become diplomatically-isolated from the West, as it could result in some form of isolation for Pakistan as well. Then comes dealing with the socioeconomic challenges, with potential influx of Afghan refugees to Pakistan’s soil, and to avert any emergence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The need is to work on these issues diplomatically, while Pakistan still holds bargaining chips with the West that hinge on foreigners’ successful evacuation and formation of an all-inclusive government in Afghanistan.

All these challenges are inter-linked. If the Taliban-led government becomes isolated from the Western world, then the economic and social miseries could exacerbate in Afghanistan. Moreover, the possible clash of Taliban with ISIS (of which chances are high after the recent terror attack on the Kabul airport) may create serious security issues amongst masses. That can lead people to flee to the neighbouring countries as refugees. If refugee influx takes place, risk of infiltration by TTP creating security risk may exacerbate.

Thus, for Pakistan, stability in Afghanistan is of utmost importance. Medium- to long-term economic benefits for the region (especially Pakistan) will occur if landlocked Central Asian states gain access to Pakistan’s seaports for trade. But at the same time, a stable Afghanistan would imply control of Taliban at the helm, and that would result in less leverage for Pakistan on Taliban. There is no win-win situation in the short to medium terms for Pakistan, but having an instable Afghanistan is a loss for all involved. Then, the Taliban’s actualization of a strict Shariah state can spur similar sentiments among hardliners in Pakistan.

Nonetheless, the focus of Pakistan should be to have an all-inclusive government and peace in Afghanistan. Goals of regional powers – China and Russia – appear to be the same. China doesn’t want any terror nurseries mushrooming in Afghanistan that may spur uprising among its Uyghur population. China wants surety from Taliban that they will not let that happen. The immediate interest of Russia is to ensure peace in the Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan. The two giants in the region want a stable Afghanistan for their own respective interests. That is why concerted efforts by the regional bloc to bring an all-inclusive government in Afghanistan are of utmost importance.

Then there are other players – Western countries (mainly the US), along with India. Right now, US and its allies are looking at evacuating their people – later, they would evaluate how to deal with the new government in Afghanistan once it is formed. India had invested heavily in the Ghani regime and may look for some salvage value by developing working relations with the Taliban. The US may want Indian influence in the Afghanistan to counter Russia and China – but it may not be feasible. Then, the role of Iran is making the equation more complex.

It is a catch-22 position for Pakistan. Along with dealing with any chaos that occurs Afghanistan, Pakistan must counter the narrative in the West about its past support to the Taliban. India has been lobbying for years to corner Pakistan in the West by propagating and exaggerating Pakistan’s alleged influence on the new rulers of Kabul. Every now and then, the Western (and Indian) media blame Pakistan for the mess, leading to active campaigns being run to isolate (even sanction) Pakistan. With the US facing embarrassment on the way, some are speeding up the narrative-building to make Pakistan the scapegoat.

The more Pakistan engages with the Taliban, the more the narrative that Pakistan is helping Taliban builds up. On the flip side, if Pakistan stays away from the Taliban, it can antagonize the latter, which can become a problem for Pakistan. It is not easy to maintain a delicate balance. That is the key foreign policy challenge Pakistan has on its hands.

Had the Afghan forces (built and supported of the West) fought till the end against the Taliban, there would have been bloodshed in the process, and that could have made the case stronger for India and allies to corner (or sanction) Pakistan. Now that premise is on a shakier ground, as there was absolutely no resistance from the Afghan Army. In the aftermath, the US is facing embarrassment and President Biden is receiving bashing from American media and establishment.

This is the story of Afghanistan from an external lens. But things brewing internally cannot be ignored. These could have repercussions on the complex web. Recent bloody attack on the Kabul airport by the ISIS has jolted both America and the Taliban alike. Both US and the Taliban want to combat ISIS in Afghanistan, and there could be collaboration in this regard to deal with the common enemy. This will create an opportunity for Pakistan, US, and Taliban joining hands in dealing with the ISIS. In that case, Pakistan’s strategic military support to the US may work for the Taliban and can help in improving Pakistan’s sour relationship with the US. Here, India could be the loser as its leverage in Afghanistan would diminish further, and the country may create resistance to stop this relationship from developing.

The situation is fluid. In any case, Pakistan is vouching for peace in Afghanistan, it is keen to avoid diplomatic isolation, it wants to manage influx of refugees, and it is taking steps to deter TTP (or ISIS) attacks in Pakistan. This will take some time to develop, as new power creates its own space in Afghanistan. Once it is done, then the economic dividends could be reaped by focusing on regional connectivity, and by building long-planned trade and energy routes from Pakistan to landlocked Central Asian states. But there’s many a slip between the cup and the lip.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021