Economic forecasting: Tarin asks MoC to take great care

Islamabad: Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin Monday asked the Ministry of Commerce (MoC) to conduct a sensitivity analysis and build scenarios for effective forecasting of both imports as well as exports for each month following significant increase in imports during the first two month of the current fiscal year: July-August 2021.

There was a significant increase in imports during the first two months of the current fiscal year as opposed to the same period a year before with imports increasing to $12.064 billion in July-August 2021 from $6.990 billion during July-August 2021, while exports increased to $4.5 billion from $3.6 billion. The meeting was presided over by the finance minister in this scenario to review the trade balance.

The meeting was told by secretary commerce about the trade balance situation over the last two months and stated that considering the expansion in economic activity, import of one-time items like vaccine for Covid-19 as well as increased demand for raw materials have resulted in increasing imports during July and August 2021.

Better economic policies will pave way for investment: Tarin

On condition of anonymity, he said that the finance minister appeared concerned over increase in imports and this has been the reason he sought forecasting scenario from the MoC of imports and exports. The finance minister stated that economy is in a state of growth. As economy registered a growth rate of four percent during fiscal year 2021, there is an increased demand for imports.

As long as trade deficit is within a sustainable level, it will stimulate economic recovery, he added.

Razak says export base ‘much too narrow’

The finance minister said that the prudent policies adopted by the present government have stimulated economic recovery amid Covid-19 pandemic. The minister added that economy is heading in the right direction as increase in revenue collection along with improved ratings (Business Confidence Index and by international credit rating agencies) indicate that the economy has gained momentum and is geared towards an inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Division Omar Ayub Khan, Secretary Commerce, Secretary Ministry of Information Technology, Secretary Finance Division, Governor State Bank of Pakistan Dr Reza Baqir, Executive Director General BOI, and other senior officers participated in the meeting. Adviser for Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood participated through a video link.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021