The situation in the country can only be described as the fortunes of the imposed government of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) increasingly dwindling, with the beleaguered incumbents increasingly feeling the invisible noose tightening around their necks. A quick survey of the present scenario is troubling, to say the least. The PTI government’s negotiations with the terrorist Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), brokered by the Afghan Taliban government after its refusal of Pakistan’s request to either take action against the TTP ensconced on Afghan soil or expel it, have yielded contrasting demands from either side, according to news reports. For example, while the TTP insists on demands like the implementation of sharia, the PTI government insists the TTP must lay down its arms to be granted amnesty. These positions are so diametrically apart as to cast grave doubts on the efficacy of the TTP offer of a one-month ceasefire (the offer has yet to be implemented, since cross-border and in-country attacks by the TTP have yet to end).
Meanwhile, the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) has been forgiven for its use of egregious violence that led to the deaths of at least seven policemen. Not only that the leadership and incarcerated supporters of the TLP are in the process of being released without any action against them, the process of mainstreaming and legitimising the TLP is moving forward. Critics are wary of the possibility that behind the ‘rehabilitation’ of the TLP lies another establishment gambit to position the TLP as a fallback option, either in coalition with the ruling PTI for the 2023 general elections, or on its own as the reportedly fourth largest party in the country. What effect this will have on the polity can be gauged from the track record of religion’s rise in our political affairs since General Ziaul Haq’s regime.
The people are groaning under galloping inflation traceable to the inept handling of the economy by the PTI government. The virtually daily dose of price rises for food, gas, electricity, petrol and everything else you can think of has broken the back of the poor and put immense pressure on all other classes’ purse. Apart from foolish moves such as first resisting but eventually accepting the new DG ISI incumbent, removing a retired General as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia just months after his appointment, the appalling record of the PTI government on the economic front have all seemingly converged to cast a shadow on the ‘same page’ mantra. That is why the speculation about the TLP’s future role in politics gathers more gravitas than usual.
Meanwhile, an opposition rejuvenated by the government’s failures is gearing up for a renewed series of protests leading to the by now almost inevitable long march on Islamabad. The fractured opposition has mended some fences, allowing it to put up a united, and therefore effective, resistance to the bulldozing tactics of the government in parliament. The miffed Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) seem poised to the cusp of a reconciliation, if not a return of the PPP to the PDM ranks. As one more example of this government’s brutish attitudes, federal Minster for Planning Asad Umar’s threat to use the danda (knout) against the opposition if it marches on Islamabad included the same treatment to journalists since the media is allegedly in cahoots with the opposition! Needless to say, the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ) has roundly condemned the Minister’s statement as undemocratic, fascist, and aimed at suppressing a free media and dissident voices.
The change in direction of the wind is indicated by the PTI government’s allies such as the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) distancing themselves from the incumbent government. This could reflect the disquiet in the establishment regarding the fumbling PTI government, but also points to the allies’ fears about their fate in the next general elections. It needs to be remembered that without these allies, the PTI government does not have a majority in the National Assembly. These developments have strengthened the case of the PPP for attempting an incremental in-house change or defeat of the government through a no-confidence strategy. Shehbaz Sharif, the Leader of the Opposition, seems of late to have veered towards the PPP point of view in this regard.
As if all this were not considerable food for thought, Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan was summoned by the Supreme Court (SC) and a barrage of questions and comments thrown at him regarding the failure of the government (and arguably the state) to bring those responsible for the security lapses that resulted in the Army Public School Peshawar massacre in 2014 despite the passage of seven years. What was left unsaid by the honourable SC and the PM in this one-sided ‘exchange’ was the difficulty in bringing the high and mighty named as responsible for the tragedy to accountability and justice.
But this was not the only shocking development on the judicial front. The former Chief Justice (CJ) of Gilgit-Baltistan, Justice Rana M Shamim, has sworn an affidavit on November 10, 2021 claiming that he was a witness to the then Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Saqib Nisar’s ‘order’ on the telephone to a high court judge (who remains unnamed so far) not to release Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz on bail at any cost before the 2018 general elections. Although former CJP Saqib Nisar, whose tenure gave birth to many controversies about his overstepping judicial limits, has denied the report, the proverbial sh** has hit the fan. The electronic media has gone virtually berserk on the issue, and the print media must be gearing up to follow suit in depth since the odd report on this conundrum will not suffice.
The above brief survey of happenings and emerging trends points in only one direction. The days of the PTI government seem numbered. How it will fall, and who will be the authors of the final push out of the corridors of power attracts as many theories as the growing numbers of inveighed commentators. This juncture must be worrying the government’s establishment backers, who logically must be burning some midnight oil in their war games rooms to plan ahead for the seemingly looming transition. If they have the capacity to learn from past experience, in the long-term interests of the country, they should take their foot off the political accelerator and allow the people to speak through a fair and free election as a minimum demand. Establishment interference in, and domination of, the democratic political process has spawned nothing but crises. Each one gets worse with time. Only a consistent, genuine, permanent adherence to the people’s will can save Pakistan from a fate worse than death: perpetual crises, instability and mayhem, which must inevitably one day engender an irretrievable disaster.
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Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
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