Raw sugar futures on ICE dropped to 11-week lows on Friday and were teetering on the brink of a bear market after key industry data showed record crushing rates in Brazil, the world's No 1 grower, reinforcing fears about a growing surplus. Coffee and cocoa were both higher as they recovered from recent pressure.
Benchmark October sugar futures on ICE settled down 0.01 cent or 0.05 percent at 19.58 cents a lb, after falling as low as 19.48 cents, the weakest for the front month since June 6. Sugar was teetering on bearish territory, having fallen 19 percent in just four weeks, as dry weather eased concerns about supply disruptions in the world's top grower. Heavy rains in May and June had pushed prices as high as 24 cents in mid-July.
On charts, that sharp fall has pushed its Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 30, an area that often indicates a market is oversold. Much-anticipated data released by milling association Unica late Thursday showed that the dry spell did indeed speed up the South American country's harvest and confirmed expectations that mills made up some of the ground lost in May and June. The cane crush was the highest on record for a 15-day period and therefore set a daily record of 2.95 million tonnes per day, according to Peter de Klerk, an analyst at Czarnikow.
The world is already facing a 5-million-tonne sugar surplus. Brokerage Sucden Financial said it expected prices to test 19 cents a lb in the near term, with resistance to the upside from 19.92 to 20 cents. Oliveira said consumer buying will resume if prices hit 19 cents. White sugar October futures on Liffe rose $2.3 or 0.4 percent to settle at $549.4 per tonne.
Trading in London was quiet ahead of the UK bank holiday weekend with the markets due to be closed on Monday. Certified coffee stocks held in NYSE Liffe-nominated warehouses fell to 142,470 tonnes as of August 20 from 146,210 tonnes as of August 6, exchange data showed. November robusta coffee futures settled up $14 or 0.69 percent at $2,055 a tonne, just off an intraday high of $2,065.
Benchmark December arabica futures traded up 0.1 cent, or 0.65 percent, at $1.629 per lb. Technical charts showed coffee was close to being oversold, with an RSI of 37. Cocoa futures recovered from recent pressure, with the market watching a large speculative long position - the biggest since the unrest in Ivory Coast in early 2011 - which indicated bets on higher prices amid possible supply issues in West Africa due to dry weather and Ivory Coast's industry reforms. ICE December cocoa futures rose for a second session, settling up $12 or 0.5 percent at $2,397 per tonne, just shy of its intraday high of $2,408. Liffe December cocoa futures settled up 2 pounds or 0.12 percent at 1,585 pounds per tonne.
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